Published on Apr 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 19-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
04:35	(Japan) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:35	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 5-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Fed Beige Book	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate QoQ	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) CPI	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During Wednesday morning in Asia, the price of gold (XAU/USD) appears to be taking a defensive stance at around $2,005. The bulls of XAU/USD are currently reevaluating the recent factors that led to a halt in the two-day downtrend of gold prices, as market sentiment has weakened due to mixed signals and a cautious mood in anticipation of a significant event.

Despite this, the gold price seems to have some support from the downtrend in the US Dollar and United States Treasury bond yields, which are helping to prevent a further drop in the commodity's price.

Buy Scenario: - The price of gold is currently trading within a one-month ascending trend channel and has recently bounced off the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating a bullish trend. The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a looming bull cross, which further supports the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) line is also upward-sloping at 14, giving buyers hope.

However, the gold price may face several obstacles at the $2,030 level and the top line of the ascending trend channel, which is currently around $2,053. These resistance levels could impede further upside movement, potentially redirecting the bulls towards the previous yearly top of $2,070. If that level is surpassed, the focus will shift to the record top of $2,075, which was achieved in 2020. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, the 100-SMA and bottom line of the trend channel, which are currently at $1,993 and $1,982, respectively, are expected to provide support for short-term gold price drops. However, if the gold price falls below the 200-SMA support level, which is around $1,947, it could be vulnerable to a drop towards the previous monthly low of approximately $1,809.

In summary, the gold price is currently trading within a one-month ascending trend channel, with several resistance levels around $2,030 and $2,053. The MACD indicator and RSI line suggest a bullish trend, but a drop below the 200-SMA support level could lead to a decline towards the previous monthly low. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -