Published on Apr 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 17-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB McCaul Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech	Low	GBP
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - Gold price (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating around the $2,005 mark as it struggles to find a clear direction amidst sluggish trading in early Monday morning in Europe. The precious metal marked its first daily loss in four days and experienced the biggest daily loss in three weeks, as the US Dollar corrected itself after reaching a one-year low.

Mixed catalysts surround the XAU/USD inaction, with uncertainties surrounding the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and geopolitical fears amidst a light calendar for the day and the week. However, a wider-than-expected fall in US Retail Sales failed to overshadow upbeat figures from the US Industrial Production and University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index, allowing the US Dollar to rebound. In addition, hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers further enabled the greenback to recover from previous losses.

Despite the data and comments, the CME’s FedWatch tool suggests an almost certain 0.25% rate hike by the US central bank in May. However, the interest rate futures still predict odds of rate cuts in late 2023 and support a longer halt to the rate hike trajectory after the upcoming rate lift.

Buy Scenario: - After breaking a two-week-old support line, which has now become a resistance level around $2,020, the gold price is consolidating its previous day's downside break. The precious metal has bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the XAU/USD up-moves from March 22 to April 13, which is close to $1,991, providing strength to the recovery moves. The RSI (14) has rebounded from the oversold territory, and there is a looming bull cross on the MACD indicator.

Despite this, the immediate upside of the Gold price is guarded by the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $2,010. The aforementioned support-turned-resistance level near $2,020 is also a major obstacle to any further upside moves. If the bulls manage to break through these levels, the early-month swing high around $2,033 and the monthly peak surrounding $2,049 could become attractive targets for XAU/USD buyers. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, a break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,991 will need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a three-week-long ascending support line, which are respectively near $1,978 and $1,967, to convince the Gold bears.

Overall, the Gold price is struggling to find a clear direction, and it seems that the buyers are running out of fuel lately. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -