Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 16-06-2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 16-06-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis


Key Points: -


·       The price of gold is experiencing a lack of momentum after a temporary rebound from a three-month low.


·       Traders of XAU/USD face challenges due to conflicting technical levels and mixed market sentiment.


·       Investors are eagerly awaiting further indications to confirm the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July, which could attract gold sellers.


Today's Scenario: -


The price of gold, represented by XAU/USD, is facing difficulties in maintaining its rebound from a three-month low as market participants seek additional evidence to confirm their cautious optimism, particularly in light of a potential rate hike in July. The XAU/USD bulls are further challenged by mixed US economic data and a lack of conviction among traders regarding the likelihood of a rate hike, despite recent statements from policymakers. Additionally, concerns over a potential slowdown in China's economic recovery, despite efforts by the state planner to accelerate key projects, are putting downward pressure on the gold price. The overall cautious sentiment ahead of upcoming US data and the testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell next week also presents challenges for those with optimistic views on XAU/USD, especially following this week's actions by central banks.


Diagram of XAU/USD (Gold): -


Economic Events: -


Date      Event                                                                                                           Impact         Currency

 01:30   (United States) Foreign Bond Investment                                        Low  USD

 01:30   (United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows                                                 Medium   USD

 01:30   (United States) Overall Net Capital Flows                                         Low  USD

 04:00   (New Zealand) Business NZ PMI                                                              Medium     NZD

 08:30   (Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision                                                   High    JPY

 12:30   (Austria) Inflation Rate MoM                                                                           Low     EUR

 12:30   (Austria) Inflation Rate YoY                                                                              Low     EUR

 12:30   (Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY                                                         Low    EUR

 12:30   (Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM                                       Low  EUR

 12:30   (Austria) CPI                                                                                                     High        EUR

 12:30   (Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY                                         Low  EUR

 12:30   (Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM                                     Low  EUR

 12:30   (United States) Fed Bullard Speech                                            Medium   USD

 13:30   (European Union) ECOFIN Meeting                                            Medium   EUR

 13:30   (Italy) Inflation Rate YoY                                                                           Medium      EUR

 13:30   (Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM                                                          Low    EUR

 13:30   (Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY                                                             Low    EUR

 13:30   (Italy) Inflation Rate MoM                                                                  Low     EUR

 13:30   (Italy) CPI                                                                                                           High       EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM                                                                      Low     EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY                                                   Low    EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY                                                                   Medium    EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Labour Cost Index YoY                                                    Low   EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Wage Growth YoY                                                                         Low     EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) CPI                                                                                                 High       EUR

 14:30   (Malta) Inflation Rate YoY                                                                  Low     EUR

 15:30   (Portugal) PPI YoY                                                                                             Low       EUR

 15:30   (Portugal) PPI MoM                                                                                         Low       EUR

 17:15   (United States) Fed Waller Speech                                            Medium   USD

 18:00   (Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases                                                            Low   CAD

 18:00   (Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians                       Low CAD

 18:00   (Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM                                                                      Low     CAD

 19:30   (United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment                                              High USD

 19:30   (United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations                                             Low  USD

 19:30   (United States) Michigan Current Conditions                                     Low  USD

 19:30   (United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations                                 Low USD

 19:30   (United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations                           Low USD

 22:30   (United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count                                     Low  USD

 22:30   (United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count                                                Low  USD



Buy Scenario: -


On the upside, there are resistance levels that could limit the immediate upward movement of the gold price. These levels include the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement on the weekly chart, the previous daily high, and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart, all located near $1,961-62.


Beyond that, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement on the one-month chart, around $1,968, will act as another obstacle for the XAU/USD bulls before potentially giving them control. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.


Selling Scenario: -


According to our Technical Confluence Indicator, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently retreating towards a key support level at $1,950, which is a significant area of confluence. This support level is formed by the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement on the weekly chart, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement on the daily chart, and the 5-day moving average (DMA).


If XAU/USD breaks below this immediate support level, similar to what occurred on Thursday, the bears will face another crucial downside level at around $1,940. This level serves as the last line of defense for the buyers and includes the 100-day moving average (DMA) and the Pivot Point one-week S1. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.


Support and Resistance Level: -

 Support               Resistance  

 S1 1935.21   -     R1 1970.67

 S2 1912.30  -      R2 1983.22

 S3 1899.75  -      R3 2006.13


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