Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 16-05-2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 16-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD)
Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)
Economic Events :-
01:30(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence IndexHighAUD
01:30(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence ChangeHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Meeting MinutesHighAUD
03:00(China) Unemployment RateHighCNY
03:00(China) Retail Sales YoYHighCNY
03:00(China) Industrial Production YoYHighCNY
03:00(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
06:00(Finland) GDP YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls ChangeLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)LowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)MediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Unemployment RateHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Claimant Count ChangeHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Employment ChangeHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQLowGBP
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:30(Netherlands) Household Consumption YoYLowEUR
08:30(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQMediumEUR
08:30(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoYMediumEUR
08:30(Netherlands) Balance of TradeLowEUR
09:00(European Union) ECOFIN MeetingMediumEUR
09:00(France) IEA Oil Market ReportMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
09:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
09:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
09:40(Spain) 3-Month Letras AuctionLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Employment Change QoQHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Employment Change YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMediumEUR
10:00(Germany) ZEW Current ConditionsLowEUR
10:00(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexHighEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) Fed Mester SpeechMediumUSD
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) Inflation Rate MoMMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) Inflation Rate YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) CPI Median YoYHighCAD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales MoMHighUSD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
13:55(United States) Fed Bostic SpeechMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production MoMLowUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production MoMMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production YoYMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production YoYLowUSD
14:15(United States) Capacity UtilizationLowUSD
14:45(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen SpeechLowEUR
15:00(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Business Inventories MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) NAHB Housing Market IndexMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Fed Barr TestimonyMediumUSD
15:00(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
16:30(United States) 52-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:15(United States) Fed Williams SpeechMediumUSD
20:15(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD

Today's Scenario: - Gold price (XAU/USD) dropped to an intraday low near $2005.00 as it faced selling pressure, reversing the corrective bounce that occurred at the start of the week, during Tuesday's European session. The decline can be attributed to the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market ahead of the release of US Retail Sales data for April and the crucial US debt ceiling talks scheduled for 19:00 GMT.
It is worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has gained strength, reaching its intraday high near 102.50. This follows a subdued performance on Monday. The rise in the US dollar is driven by market concerns about a potential US default and the apprehension surrounding the upcoming key US data. Notably, recent comments from US House Speaker McCarthy expressing doubts about the situation have provided support to the US dollar. This has created fears of a deadlock in the US debt ceiling extension negotiations, as Republicans may maintain their demands.

Buy Scenario: - The price of gold (XAU/USD) has reversed from a convergence of the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around $2,019 at the current time.
However, the pullback in XAU/USD lacks support from the RSI (14) line as it falls below the 50.0 level, indicating a potential decline.
This highlights a horizontal support zone that has been in place for one week, centered around the $2,000 round figure, which will be an important level for gold sellers to monitor.
Even if the XAU/USD breaks below the $2,000 support level, despite the RSI nearing oversold levels, there is an upward-sloping support line from April 27, currently around $1,995, which may provide a last line of defense for buyers. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, breaking above the confluence of the $2,019 EMA resistance does not guarantee an immediate rally in the price of gold. There is a downward-sloping trend line from May 3, currently near $2,023, which could pose a challenge for bulls before they can gain control. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 2008.49-R1 2023.31
S2 2000.51-R2 2030.15
S3 1993.67-R3 2038.13


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