Published on May 16, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 16-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
03:00	(China) Unemployment Rate	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Retail Sales YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Industrial Production YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
06:00	(Finland) GDP YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Employment Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQ	Low	GBP
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) Household Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Netherlands) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
09:00	(European Union) ECOFIN Meeting	Medium	EUR
09:00	(France) IEA Oil Market Report	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Employment Change QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Employment Change YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:15	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD
13:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Sales MoM	High	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	USD
14:15	(United States) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Industrial Production YoY	Medium	USD
14:15	(United States) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	USD
14:15	(United States) Capacity Utilization	Low	USD
14:45	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Business Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
16:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
20:15	(United States) Fed Logan Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - Gold price (XAU/USD) dropped to an intraday low near $2005.00 as it faced selling pressure, reversing the corrective bounce that occurred at the start of the week, during Tuesday's European session. The decline can be attributed to the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market ahead of the release of US Retail Sales data for April and the crucial US debt ceiling talks scheduled for 19:00 GMT.

It is worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has gained strength, reaching its intraday high near 102.50. This follows a subdued performance on Monday. The rise in the US dollar is driven by market concerns about a potential US default and the apprehension surrounding the upcoming key US data. Notably, recent comments from US House Speaker McCarthy expressing doubts about the situation have provided support to the US dollar. This has created fears of a deadlock in the US debt ceiling extension negotiations, as Republicans may maintain their demands.

Buy Scenario: - The price of gold (XAU/USD) has reversed from a convergence of the 100-bar and 200-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around $2,019 at the current time.

However, the pullback in XAU/USD lacks support from the RSI (14) line as it falls below the 50.0 level, indicating a potential decline.

This highlights a horizontal support zone that has been in place for one week, centered around the $2,000 round figure, which will be an important level for gold sellers to monitor.

Even if the XAU/USD breaks below the $2,000 support level, despite the RSI nearing oversold levels, there is an upward-sloping support line from April 27, currently around $1,995, which may provide a last line of defense for buyers. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, breaking above the confluence of the $2,019 EMA resistance does not guarantee an immediate rally in the price of gold. There is a downward-sloping trend line from May 3, currently near $2,023, which could pose a challenge for bulls before they can gain control. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -