Published on Jun 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 15-06-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Key Points: -

· The price of gold is testing a critical support confluence as the US Dollar and bond yields receive a boost from the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) sentiment.

· While the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was in line with expectations, the dot plot and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech weighed on the price of gold.

· The downbeat economic data from China further reinforces the bearish bias for gold.

· The support level around $1,930 and upcoming US data will play a crucial role in determining the potential for further weakness in the price of gold.

Today's Scenario: -

The price of gold, represented by XAU/USD, has declined to a three-month low as investors find reassurance in the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain its hawkish stance. This decision, which kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.0-5.25%, aligns with market expectations of a pause in the Fed's previous cycle of raising rates. However, the market sentiment turned more hawkish following the release of the upbeat FOMC Economic Projections and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which focused on the July meeting and renewed expectations of future rate hikes, putting pressure on the XAU/USD.

Furthermore, disappointing data on China's Retail Sales and Industrial Production, along with higher yields on US Treasury bonds, have contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding gold. Nevertheless, the recent rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the Fed's emphasis on incoming data for decision-making have left sellers of XAU/USD somewhat uncertain.

As a result, market participants will closely monitor the release of May's Retail Sales data, along with other mid-tier activity indicators and weekly Jobless Claims, to gain insights into the state of the economy. Additionally, the outcome of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting will be of interest as it can directly impact both the US Dollar and the price of gold.

Diagram of XAU/USD (Gold): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

0:00 (United States) Fed Press Conference High USD

4:15 (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate YoY Medium NZD

4:15 (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate QoQ Medium NZD

5:20 (Japan) Foreign Bond Investment Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Machinery Orders YoY Medium JPY

5:20 (Japan) Machinery Orders MoM Medium JPY

5:20 (Japan) Imports YoY Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Balance of Trade High JPY

5:20 (Japan) Exports YoY Medium JPY

5:30 (Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting Medium EUR

7:00 (Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations Low AUD

7:00 (Australia) Part Time Employment Chg Medium AUD

7:00 (Australia) Participation Rate Low AUD

7:00 (Australia) Full Time Employment Chg Medium AUD

7:00 (Australia) Unemployment Rate High AUD

7:00 (Australia) Employment Change High AUD

7:00 (Australia) RBA Bulletin Medium AUD

7:00 (China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement Low CNY

7:00 (China) House Price Index YoY Medium CNY

7:30 (China) Unemployment Rate High CNY

7:30 (China) Retail Sales YoY High CNY

7:30 (China) Industrial Production YoY High CNY

7:30 (China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY Medium CNY

9:05 (Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction Low JPY

10:00 (Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM Low JPY

10:00 (Netherlands) Unemployment Rate Medium EUR

10:30 (Finland) GDP YoY Low EUR

12:00 (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM Low CHF

12:00 (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY Low CHF

12:15 (France) Inflation Rate MoM Medium EUR

12:15 (France) Inflation Rate YoY Medium EUR

12:15 (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:15 (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

13:30 (Spain) Balance of Trade Medium EUR

14:10 (Spain) Obligacion Auction Low EUR

14:10 (Spain) Bonos Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Euro Area) Balance of Trade Medium EUR

14:30 (France) 5-Year OAT Auction Low EUR

14:30 (France) 3-Year OAT Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Greece) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

15:00 (Belgium) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

15:30 (France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction Low EUR

15:30 (Ireland) Balance of Trade Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Economic Activity YoY Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Private Consumption YoY Low EUR

17:45 (Canada) Housing Starts Medium CAD

17:45 (Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision High EUR

17:45 (Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate Low EUR

17:45 (Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate High EUR

18:00 (Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM Low CAD

18:00 (United States) Import Prices YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) Export Prices YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) Import Prices MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Export Prices MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales YoY High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Business Conditions Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Employment Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed CAPEX Index Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Prices Paid Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed New Orders Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average High USD

18:00 (United States) Continuing Jobless Claims High USD

18:00 (United States) Initial Jobless Claims High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM High USD

18:15 (Euro Area) ECB Press Conference High EUR

18:30 (Belgium) Balance of Trade Low EUR

18:30 (Kosovo) GDP Growth Rate YoY Low EUR

18:45 (United States) Capacity Utilization Low USD

18:45 (United States) Manufacturing Production YoY Low USD

18:45 (United States) Industrial Production YoY Medium USD

18:45 (United States) Industrial Production MoM Medium USD

18:45 (United States) Manufacturing Production MoM Low USD

19:30 (United States) Business Inventories MoM Medium USD

19:30 (United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change Low USD

21:00 (United States) 8-Week Bill Auction Low USD

21:00 (United States) 4-Week Bill Auction Low USD

21:05 (United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech Low GBP

21:30 (Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction Low CAD

21:30 (United States) 15-Year Mortgage Rate Low USD

21:30 (United States) 30-Year Mortgage Rate Low USD

Buy Scenario: -

On the upside, the combination of the 100-day moving average (DMA) and the Pivot Point one-week S1 highlights $1,943 as a key resistance level for XAU/USD buyers to overcome in the short term.

If the Gold Price manages to rise above $1,943, the Fibonacci 38.2% level on the daily chart around $1,948 could act as a further hurdle before reaching the $1,950 upside resistance level.

It's important to note that even if the Gold Price surpasses $1,950, there are additional barriers for the bulls. The previous daily high and the Fibonacci 38.2% level on the one-week chart, near $1,960, may also impede further progress for XAU/USD buyers. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: -

If the support at $1,932 is breached, the Fibonacci 161.8% level on the weekly chart near $1,917 could provide a minor obstacle for the Gold bears on their way towards the psychological round figure level of $1,900. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.