Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 15-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - Gold prices, represented by XAU/USD, have experienced a downward trend over the past three days, resulting in the largest weekly loss since late September 2022. During this period, the decline in gold prices can be attributed to the consolidation of the US Dollar, driven by hopes that there will be no US default, along with mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. Additionally, concerns regarding downbeat US data on inflation and consumer confidence have contributed to the pressure on the US Dollar.

Despite these factors, gold remains vulnerable to further declines due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding the US debt ceiling extension and concerns about potential banking issues and deposit losses.

Looking ahead, short-term movements in gold prices will likely be influenced by the outcome of negotiations among US policymakers regarding the debt ceiling extension, as well as key economic data such as US inflation and retail sales figures for April. Market participants will also closely monitor any statements or speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as they may provide additional insights into the direction of monetary policy and its impact on gold prices.

Buy Scenario: - Based on our Technical Confluence Indicator, the Gold price has found support around the key level of $2,010, which represents a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8% on a weekly basis and 38.2% on a monthly basis) as well as the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart.

As a result, the XAU/USD has reversed its three-day downtrend and is approaching the immediate resistance level at $2,021, which is defined by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart.

If the price manages to surpass this hurdle, the next obstacle is likely to be the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart, which is located around $2,030. A successful break above this level could lead the Gold buyers towards the key resistance at $2,050, which has been tested multiple times since mid-April. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, if the price breaks below the support level at $2,010, it may decline towards the psychological level of $2,000. This level is also supported by the Pivot Point one-day S1 and the previous daily low.

If the XAU/USD remains below $2,000, the price could find intermediate support around $1,995 before potentially sliding towards the previous monthly low near $1,969. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -