Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 14-06-2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 14-06-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis


Key Points: -


·       The price of gold attracts some buyers as it approaches the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), leading to a partial recovery from the losses seen overnight.


·       The anticipation of a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle provides support to the precious metal.


·       The subdued risk sentiment in the market favors the safe-haven appeal of XAU/USD. However, the gains are limited by a modest uptick in the US Dollar.


·       Investors appear cautious in making significant moves ahead of the upcoming central bank event risks.


Today's Scenario: -


Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto modest gains as it breaks a three-day downtrend and attempts to recover from the weekly loss, positioning itself ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements. The market sentiment leading up to the Fed meeting, as well as ongoing tensions between the US and China, coupled with stronger Treasury bond yields, had previously weighed on XAU/USD. However, the release of disappointing US inflation data, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI figures for May, weakened the US Dollar and attracted buyers back to gold.


While the recent US inflation figures have already posed a challenge to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, it is not expected that the central bank will adopt a dovish stance. The focus will be on the economic forecasts, the dot plot, and the comments made by Chairman Jerome Powell during the press conference, as they will provide clearer guidance. If the Fed policymakers suggest a rate hike in July and signal more to come, it may diminish the appeal of gold for investors. Conversely, dovish remarks could potentially push XAU/USD above the $1,960 resistance level.


Diagram of XAU/USD (Gold): -


Economic Events: -


Date      Event                                                                                            Impact        Currency

 02:00   (United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change                  Medium             USD

 04:15   (New Zealand) Current Account                                                  Medium NZD

 05:30   (New Zealand) Food Inflation YoY                                         Low NZD

 10:00   (Netherlands) Balance of Trade                                                          Low  EUR

 10:30   (Finland) Inflation Rate YoY                                                                 Low  EUR

 10:30   (Finland) Inflation Rate MoM                                                              Low  EUR

 10:30   (Finland) CPI                                                                                         Low     EUR

 11:30   (United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg                                          Medium GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU                              High GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Balance of Trade                                      Low GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY                       Low GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY                       Low GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM                            Medium             GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY             Low GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM    Medium            GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance                                            High GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) GDP YoY                                                                 Low  GBP

 11:30   (United Kingdom) GDP MoM                                                             High  GBP

 11:30   (Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM                               Medium EUR

 11:30   (Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY                                  Medium EUR

 12:30   (China) FDI (YTD) YoY                                                                   Medium   CNY

 12:30   (Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM                                                            Low  EUR

 12:30   (Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY                                                                Low  EUR

 12:30   (Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM                                      Low EUR

 12:30   (Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY                                        Low EUR

 12:30   (Slovakia) CPI                                                                                      Low      EUR

 13:30   (France) IEA Oil Market Report                                                   Medium  EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM                                     Medium EUR

 14:30   (Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY                                              Low  EUR

 14:30   (Montenegro) GDP Growth Rate YoY                                                Low  EUR

 15:00   (Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction                               Medium  EUR

 15:30   (Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM                                                          Low    EUR

 15:30   (Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY                                                             Low    EUR

 15:30   (Portugal) CPI                                                                                     Low       EUR

 15:30   (Ireland) Residential Property Prices YoY                                          Low  EUR

 15:30   (Ireland) Residential Property Prices MoM                       Low EUR

 16:30   (United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate                Medium USD

 16:30   (United States) MBA Mortgage Applications                      Low USD

 16:30   (United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index                              Low USD

 16:30   (United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index                                  Low USD

 16:30   (United States) MBA Purchase Index                                                 Low  USD

 17:00   (United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker                               Low GBP

 18:00   (Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales                                     Low  CAD

 18:00   (United States) Core PPI MoM                                                  Medium    USD

 18:00   (United States) Core PPI YoY                                                             Low    USD

 18:00   (United States) PPI YoY                                                                      Low     USD

 18:00   (United States) PPI MoM                                                     High  USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change                                  Low USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change                              Low USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change               Medium USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change                      Low USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change                             Low USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change                                 Low USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change                Medium USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change         Low              USD

 20:00   (United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change         Low              USD

 21:00   (United States) 17-Week Bill Auction                                                 Low USD

 23:30   (United States) Fed Interest Rate Decision                          High              USD

 23:30   (United States) FOMC Economic Projections                        High              USD

 23:30   (United States) Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr                           Medium            USD

 23:30   (United States) Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr                         Medium            USD

 23:30   (United States) Interest Rate Projection - Current        Medium            USD

 23:30   (United States) Interest Rate Projection - Longer                        Medium             USD



Buy Scenario: -


On the upside, any significant intraday upward movement is likely to encounter resistance in the $1,962-$1,964 region, followed by a supply zone between $1,970 and $1,972. Beyond that, the next hurdles are located at $1,983-$1,985 and the psychological level of $2,000. Sustained strength above the $2,000 level would shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and could propel the Gold price towards the next relevant resistance in the $2,010-$2,012 region. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.


Selling Scenario: -


From a technical standpoint, the area between $1,942 and $1,940, which includes the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), is expected to continue providing strong immediate support. A decisive break and sustained trading below this level would serve as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. If the price drops below the May monthly swing low around $1,932, it would confirm the negative bias and leave the Gold price vulnerable to further decline towards the psychological level of $1,900. The downward momentum could potentially extend even further, leading XAU/USD towards the horizontal support zone between $1,876 and $1,875, on its way to the significant 200-day SMA around $1,839. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.


Support and Resistance Level: -

 Support               Resistance  

 S1 1932.20   -     R1 1963.16

 S2 1920.65  -      R2 1982.57

 S3 1901.24  -      R3 1994.12


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