Published on Jun 14, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 14-06-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Key Points: -

· The price of gold attracts some buyers as it approaches the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), leading to a partial recovery from the losses seen overnight.

· The anticipation of a potential pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle provides support to the precious metal.

· The subdued risk sentiment in the market favors the safe-haven appeal of XAU/USD. However, the gains are limited by a modest uptick in the US Dollar.

· Investors appear cautious in making significant moves ahead of the upcoming central bank event risks.

Today's Scenario: -

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds onto modest gains as it breaks a three-day downtrend and attempts to recover from the weekly loss, positioning itself ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements. The market sentiment leading up to the Fed meeting, as well as ongoing tensions between the US and China, coupled with stronger Treasury bond yields, had previously weighed on XAU/USD. However, the release of disappointing US inflation data, as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI figures for May, weakened the US Dollar and attracted buyers back to gold.

While the recent US inflation figures have already posed a challenge to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, it is not expected that the central bank will adopt a dovish stance. The focus will be on the economic forecasts, the dot plot, and the comments made by Chairman Jerome Powell during the press conference, as they will provide clearer guidance. If the Fed policymakers suggest a rate hike in July and signal more to come, it may diminish the appeal of gold for investors. Conversely, dovish remarks could potentially push XAU/USD above the $1,960 resistance level.

Diagram of XAU/USD (Gold): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

02:00 (United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change Medium USD

04:15 (New Zealand) Current Account Medium NZD

05:30 (New Zealand) Food Inflation YoY Low NZD

10:00 (Netherlands) Balance of Trade Low EUR

10:30 (Finland) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

10:30 (Finland) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

10:30 (Finland) CPI Low EUR

11:30 (United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg Medium GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU High GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Balance of Trade Low GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY Low GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY Low GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM Medium GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY Low GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM Medium GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance High GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) GDP YoY Low GBP

11:30 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM High GBP

11:30 (Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM Medium EUR

11:30 (Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY Medium EUR

12:30 (China) FDI (YTD) YoY Medium CNY

12:30 (Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:30 (Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

12:30 (Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:30 (Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

12:30 (Slovakia) CPI Low EUR

13:30 (France) IEA Oil Market Report Medium EUR

14:30 (Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM Medium EUR

14:30 (Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) GDP Growth Rate YoY Low EUR

15:00 (Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction Medium EUR

15:30 (Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

15:30 (Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

15:30 (Portugal) CPI Low EUR

15:30 (Ireland) Residential Property Prices YoY Low EUR

15:30 (Ireland) Residential Property Prices MoM Low EUR

16:30 (United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Medium USD

16:30 (United States) MBA Mortgage Applications Low USD

16:30 (United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index Low USD

16:30 (United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index Low USD

16:30 (United States) MBA Purchase Index Low USD

17:00 (United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker Low GBP

18:00 (Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales Low CAD

18:00 (United States) Core PPI MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Core PPI YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) PPI YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) PPI MoM High USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change Medium USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Medium USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Low USD

21:00 (United States) 17-Week Bill Auction Low USD

23:30 (United States) Fed Interest Rate Decision High USD

23:30 (United States) FOMC Economic Projections High USD

23:30 (United States) Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr Medium USD

23:30 (United States) Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr Medium USD

23:30 (United States) Interest Rate Projection - Current Medium USD

23:30 (United States) Interest Rate Projection - Longer Medium USD

Buy Scenario: -

On the upside, any significant intraday upward movement is likely to encounter resistance in the $1,962-$1,964 region, followed by a supply zone between $1,970 and $1,972. Beyond that, the next hurdles are located at $1,983-$1,985 and the psychological level of $2,000. Sustained strength above the $2,000 level would shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and could propel the Gold price towards the next relevant resistance in the $2,010-$2,012 region. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: -

From a technical standpoint, the area between $1,942 and $1,940, which includes the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), is expected to continue providing strong immediate support. A decisive break and sustained trading below this level would serve as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. If the price drops below the May monthly swing low around $1,932, it would confirm the negative bias and leave the Gold price vulnerable to further decline towards the psychological level of $1,900. The downward momentum could potentially extend even further, leading XAU/USD towards the horizontal support zone between $1,876 and $1,875, on its way to the significant 200-day SMA around $1,839. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.