Published on Apr 13, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 13-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Employment Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Unemployment Rate	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Participation Rate	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 21-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 14-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Economic Activity YoY	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Private Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
14:00	(Canada) BoC Gov Macklem Speech	Medium	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The price of gold (XAU/USD) has increased to reach an intraday high of around $2,020, marking its third consecutive day of gains. This comes after crossing the key hurdle of $2,000, which has now become a support level, due to the weakening of the US Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems to be on track for its fifth consecutive weekly loss, following the release of downbeat US inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been signaling that monetary policy will remain accommodative in the future, as evidenced by the FOMC Minutes and recent public speeches. This has further contributed to the downward pressure on the DXY, while also fueling the rise in gold prices.

Furthermore, despite mixed inflation and trade numbers, there is optimism surrounding China's economic growth. This, combined with concerns about a potential recession in the West, has also helped to push up the price of XAU/USD.

Buy Scenario: - According to our Technical Confluence Indicator, the price of gold has managed to stay above the key support level of $2,000, which includes the Fibonacci 38.2% on a one-week basis, Pivot Point one-day S1, previous daily low, and a psychological level.

Not only has XAU/USD broken above the $2,000 mark, but it has also sustained trading above the immediate resistances, which have now become support levels, providing hope for gold buyers.

The next levels of support for gold include the Fibonacci 23.6% on a one-week basis, situated around $2,014, followed by the $2,010 support confluence that includes the previous monthly high and SMA10 on a four-hour (4H) chart.

As a result, the gold price appears poised to challenge the $2,030 hurdle, which encompasses Pivot Point one-day R1.

Subsequently, the XAU/USD bulls may face resistance at the previous weekly high near $2,035 and Pivot Point one-week R1 around $2,045 before they can direct their efforts towards the previous yearly high of $2,070 and then to the record high reached in 2020 around $2,075. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - The price of gold is currently in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern, indicating a significant contraction in volatility after some erratic moves. The trendlines of the pattern are drawn from the April 10 low at $1,986.28 and the April 05 high at $2,032.09, with one sloping upward and the other downward.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,014.48 is providing support to the Gold bulls, adding to their confidence.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00 into the 40.00-60.00 range, which suggests that the uptrend may be running out of steam and nearing exhaustion. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -