Published on May 12, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 12-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:00	(New Zealand) Business Inflation Expectations	Low	NZD
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQ	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Orders YoY	Low	GBP
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Spain) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
10:00	(China) Current Account	Medium	CNY
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:15	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Export Prices YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Import Prices YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Import Prices MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Export Prices MoM	Medium	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) Senior Loan Officer Survey	Medium	CAD
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - Gold prices (XAU/USD) have experienced a three-day decline, signaling a resurgence of bearish sentiment after a brief respite. The strength of the US Dollar, driven by mixed market sentiment, has contributed to the downward pressure on XAU/USD. Concerns over the US debt ceiling expiry, as policymakers postpone talks to early next week, have added to the bearish bias. Additionally, fears of an economic slowdown have arisen due to a slump in US bank deposits.

However, it is worth noting that the hopes of a recovery in China's inflation and the optimism expressed by US policymakers are challenging the bearish momentum for gold. These factors, combined with upcoming US inflation data, justify recent concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Furthermore, next week's US Retail Sales report and a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be important events to monitor, as they can significantly impact gold prices in the near term.

Buy Scenario: - According to our Technical Confluence Indicator, the Gold price is currently exhibiting a bearish outlook, as it remains below the crucial support confluence at $2,025. This confluence consists of the middle band of the Bollinger on the four-hour (4H) chart and the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level on the monthly chart.

Recently, the price of gold fell below the $2,010 level, signaling a victory for the bears and resulting in the first weekly loss in three weeks. The $2,010 level, which now serves as immediate resistance, encompasses the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level on the monthly chart, the previous daily low, and the lower band of the Bollinger on the 4H chart.

It is important to note that the 5-day moving average (5-DMA) and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level on the daily chart are key upside barriers around $2,023. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, there appears to be a clear path for the Gold price as it hovers around the $2,000 psychological level. In case of further downside, the one-day Pivot Point S2 level acts as an additional support level around $1,990.

Furthermore, if the selling pressure intensifies, the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level on the monthly chart can serve as the last line of defense for Gold buyers near $1,985. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -