Published on May 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 11-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Bank Lending YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Current Account	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) BoJ Summary of Opinions	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Current	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Monetary Policy Report	High	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
15:15	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
18:30	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - Despite the previous day's retreat from the key $2,050 resistance, the Gold price (XAU/USD) remains on track to post a three-week uptrend. The softer US inflation numbers and the weaker US Dollar have been beneficial to buyers of the precious metal. However, mixed details of the US price pressure data, combined with US-China tensions and looming fears of a US default, are nudging XAU/USD bulls.

It's worth noting that concerns over mixed US inflation details and the market's consolidation ahead of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the University of Michigan's (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, are pushing Gold prices upwards. Additionally, China's lack of interest in placating tensions with the US and the softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the country are also putting downward pressure on the Gold price.

Buy Scenario: - Our Technical Confluence Indicator shows that the Gold price is facing difficulty in surpassing the crucial $2,050 resistance level, which includes the upper band of the Bollinger on the daily chart, the highs recorded in the previous day and month.

Before breaking above the significant $2,050 mark, the Pivot Point one-month R1 highlights the $2,043 level as an intermediate obstacle for the XAU/USD buyers to overcome and establish the uptrend momentum.

In addition, the $2,057-58 range, including the Fibonacci 23.6% on the weekly chart, acts as an additional resistance filter for the Gold price to climb higher.

However, if the XAU/USD manages to remain firm above $2,058, it may test the recently reported all-time high of around $2,080. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, the middle band of the Bollinger on the four-hour chart, along with the Fibonacci 23.6% on one-month, highlights the immediate support level at $2,025 for the Gold price.

If the XAU/USD falls below $2,025, it may test the $2,015 level, including the Fibonacci 61.8% on one-week. Further, if the bears continue to dominate, the $2,010 level may act as an additional support level before the Fibonacci 38.2% on one-month comes into play. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -