Published on Apr 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 11-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) NAB Business Confidence	High	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) M2 Money Supply YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) New Yuan Loans	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) Total Social Financing	Low	CNY
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Fed Harker Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The price of gold (XAU/USD) has surpassed $2,000 due to a weaker US Dollar, combined with a decrease in US Treasury bond yields, which has attracted XAU/USD sellers in a bustling market. The re-evaluation of market predictions for the Federal Reserve's rate hike, as well as optimism about growth in India and China, as reported by Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has helped to keep the gold price steady. However, disappointing inflation figures in China and rising tensions between the US and China have fueled demand for XAU/USD.

Additionally, the cautious mood ahead of Wednesday's crucial US inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, as well as the current market consolidation, have allowed the gold price to remain marginally high.

Nevertheless, the gold price remains robust due to the weakened US Dollar and increasing worries about the Fed's future policies. However, to continue this trend, the XAU/USD bulls will need to receive confirmation from upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the FOMC Minutes.

Buy Scenario: - Our Technical Confluence Indicator suggests that the Gold price is approaching the $2,010 resistance confluence, which includes the previous monthly high. The $2,014 level, which encompasses the Fibonacci 23.6% on a one-week basis, is also acting as an upside filter.

If the Gold price surpasses these levels, it may face further resistance at Pivot Point one-day R2, Fibonacci 161.8% on one-day, and Pivot Point one-day R3, which could challenge Gold buyers at around $2,016, $2,020, and $2,025, respectively. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, if XAU/USD experiences a pullback, there are several support levels to watch. The SMA10 on 4H and 10-HMA are currently limiting the immediate downside of the Gold price, near $1,998 and $1,995, respectively.

If the XAU/USD price remains bearish below $1,995, the Fibonacci 61.8% on a one-week basis, around $1,982, may act as the last defense of the Gold buyers. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -