Published on Apr 6, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 06-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Maundy Thursday	None	USD
01:00	(Portugal) Maundy Thursday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Financial Stability Review	Medium	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Composite PMI	Low	CNY
02:45	(China) Caixin Services PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:45	(Switzerland) Unemployment Rate	High	CHF
07:00	(Finland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	CHF
08:30	(Euro Area) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Construction PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Italy) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI	Medium	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Hourly Wages YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Participation Rate	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Employment Change	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Unemployment Rate	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:00	(Ecuador) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the early European trading session, the price of gold has witnessed a significant drop, reaching close to $2,010.00. Market analysts predict that the current decline may encourage more traders to offer their shares, but the precious metal is expected to receive a cushion of support near the psychological mark of $2,000.00.

Investors have been closely monitoring the movement of gold prices, which have been experiencing a great deal of volatility in recent times. The current drop in gold prices may be attributed to various factors, including a strong US dollar and rising bond yields, which have led to a shift in investment towards other assets.

Despite the current bearish trend, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, as it continues to serve as a reliable store of value and a hedge against inflation. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the threat of economic instability are expected to support demand for the precious metal in the coming months.

Buy Scenario: - The price of gold has been moving along an upward-sloping resistance line since late January, currently at around $2,030. This confirms the breakout of a pennant formation and is supported by bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, indicates overbought conditions which may prompt occasional selling pressure.

Despite this, the yellow metal is poised to reach a new Year-To-Date high, albeit gradually. If the XAU/USD manages to surpass the $2,030 level, it may face additional resistance at the 2022 peak of $2,070 and the all-time high of $2,075 reached in 2020. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - For the time being, any pullbacks in the Gold price are unlikely as long as it remains above the top line of the aforementioned pennant, which currently sits around $1,990. If the price does drop below this level, the pennant's bottom line of around $1,970 and February's peak of $1,960 may act as the last line of defense for the XAU/USD bulls. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -