Published on May 5, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 05-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Japan) Greenery Day	None	JPY
01:00	(Latvia) Declaration of Independence Day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:30	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:15	(Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate	Low	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate	High	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision	High	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:45	(Euro Area) ECB Press Conference	High	EUR
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrs	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The price of gold (XAU/USD) is continuing to rise as buyers approach the $2,050 mark on Friday, which coincides with the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls report. This recent increase in gold's value could be attributed to the US Dollar's inability to sustain its rebound from the previous day, due to uncertain signals surrounding the country's banking sector and debt ceiling issues.

Buy Scenario: - If the Gold price breaks above the tops marked in 2022 and 2020, near $2,070 and $2,075, respectively, the XAU/USD may move higher. The megaphone's top line, close to $2,080 at the latest, could also provide further resistance, and a break above it might push the Gold price towards the $2,100 round figure. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - The Gold price is showing a bullish megaphone chart formation on the four-hour chart, indicating a gradual rise in the XAU/USD price. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line is overbought, and the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator's bullish bias is declining, hinting at a possible pullback. Nevertheless, there is horizontal support near $2,030, limiting the downside of the XAU/USD. If the Gold price breaks below this level, it may attract sellers, leading to a decline towards the $2,000 round figure, followed by the $1,980 support level, which includes the megaphone's bottom line and the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -