Published on May 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 04-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Japan) Greenery Day	None	JPY
01:00	(Latvia) Declaration of Independence Day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:30	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:15	(Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate	Low	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate	High	EUR
13:15	(Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision	High	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:45	(Euro Area) ECB Press Conference	High	EUR
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases TIPS 1 to 7.5 yrs	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - Gold price (XAU/USD) is experiencing a slight decline as bulls take a break after hitting a new record high. This comes ahead of the key European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, as well as the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

The recent surge in gold prices can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's efforts to downplay the possibility of further rate hikes, despite announcing a 0.25% rate increase. Additionally, the US dollar's weakness due to concerns over banking issues and the debt ceiling expiration has also contributed to the rise in gold prices. The omission of any mention of the need for future rate increases by policymakers has added to the gold price upside.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) positive outlook for Asia, a leading consumer of XAU/USD, has also supported the bullish sentiment in gold prices.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, a confluence of Pivot Point one month R1 and one week R3 highlights $2,043 as a short-term key resistance level. If Gold manages to surpass this level, the previous monthly high and upper band of the Bollinger on four-hour play may challenge the Gold buyers.

It should be noted that the XAU/USD uptrend beyond $2,043 may slow down at the $2,063 level, which includes Pivot Point one-day R2 and upper band of the Bollinger on hourly play. If this level is also breached, it could challenge the all-time high near $2,080. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - According to our Technical Confluence Indicator, Gold price is currently trading above the $2,025 resistance-turned-support level, which is a combination of Pivot Point one-week R2 and Fibonacci 23.6% on one month. This, along with the weaker US Dollar, is providing support to XAU/USD bulls.

If the Gold price breaks below the $2,025 support level, the $2,011 confluence level, which comprises Fibonacci 38.2% on one month, could act as the last defense for buyers. If this level is breached, the $2,000 level may offer additional support for the Gold sellers before they can gain control. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -