Published on Apr 3, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 03-04-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Small Manufacturers Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large All Industry Capex	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	High	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:15	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Home Loans MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Investment Lending for Homes	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) CPI	High	CHF
07:45	(France) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR

09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP

09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 3-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) BoC Business Outlook Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:15	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Capacity Utilization	Low	NZD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Business Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The outlook for the US dollar appears bearish due to several factors. These include a slowdown in personal consumption growth in February, the possibility of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and a generally softer monetary policy stance. These factors have contributed to a decline in the dollar's yield advantage, making it a less attractive investment option.

The US interest rate market has already factored in these expectations, which could further weaken the dollar in the coming days. This pessimistic sentiment towards the dollar is reinforced by the recent negative developments in the US economy.

Buy Scenario: - The Gold price has recently rebounded from oversold territory, as indicated by the RSI (14). However, the overall sentiment remains bearish due to the bearish MACD signals and the clear downside break of a two-week-old ascending trend line. The price is also trading below the 200-HMA and 100-HMA confluence, which is adding to the bearish sentiment.

For the Gold bulls to regain control, the price needs to cross the $1,960 support-turned-resistance line. Even if the price manages to cross this hurdle, the HMA convergence near $1,970 is likely to provide tough resistance. Additionally, there is a downward-sloping resistance line from March 20, which is currently near $1,987, that is restricting the short-term upside of the Gold price. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, a break below the latest swing low around $1,950 could lead to further downside pressure. In this case, the price could target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the XAU/USD’s March 15-20 upside, which is near $1,933.

Overall, the Gold price remains on the bearish radar, despite the recent corrective bounce. It will be interesting to see if the bulls can take control and push the price higher in the coming days. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -