Published on May 2, 2023

Daily Analysis For GOLD (XAU/USD) 02-05-2023

Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for XAU/USD (GOLD)

Economic Events :-

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Consumer Confidence	High	CHF
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Greece) Total Credit YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability Report	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Participation Rate	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQ	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQ	High	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Unemployment Rate	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - Gold prices (XAU/USD) are showing slight gains near $1,985 as traders exercise caution ahead of key central bank events amidst a full return to markets on Tuesday. The retreat of the US dollar due to concerns over the looming default strengthens XAU/USD's rebound. The seizure of assets by US regulators and their sale to JP Morgan has also eased concerns about the fallout from First Republic Bank. Additionally, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) positive economic report on the Asia-Pacific region, one of the largest consumers of gold, is also contributing to the XAU/USD's firmness. However, the possibility of a hawkish Federal Reserve, US-China tensions, anxiety over upcoming top-tier US data/events, and central bank events in other major economies are also supporting the upside of gold prices.

Buy Scenario: - According to our Technical Confluence indicator, the Gold price is currently struggling to break through the resistance confluence at $1,990, which includes Fibonacci 61.8% on one-week and one-month, as well as Fibonacci 38.2% on one-day. Additionally, another key resistance level for buyers to watch is the Fibonacci 38.2% on one-week, located around $1,998.

If buyers manage to break through these resistance levels, they will likely face a final defense from sellers at the convergence of the Pivot Point one-day R1, middle band of the Bollinger on daily chart, and Fibonacci 23.6% on one-week, located near $2,001. Till we did not advise to buy XAU/USD.

Selling Scenario: - On the downside, there is minor support near $1,973, which includes Pivot Point one-week S1, followed by the $1,970 level comprising Pivot Point one-day S1 and lower band of the Bollinger on one-day. If bears successfully break through these levels, there is a chance of witnessing a decline towards the previous monthly low of around $1,950. We do not advise selling XAU/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -