Published on Mar 31, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 31-03-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Malta) Freedom Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
01:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(China) NBS Non Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
02:30	(China) NBS Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
02:30	(China) NBS General PMI	Low	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQ	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Current Account	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) Current Account	Low	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Wage Growth YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(Belgium) Current Account	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Soy	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Corn	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Wheat	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Cotton	Low	USD
18:00	(El Salvador) Current Account	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
19:00	(El Salvador) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	USD
19:00	(El Salvador) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	USD
20:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
22:45	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/USD is currently maintaining a stable position below the 1.2400 level, following a slight decrease from the two-month highs of 1.2423 that were reached earlier in the European morning. The pair is facing downward pressure due to a combination of mixed economic data from the UK and a small pullback in the value of the US Dollar.

Buy Scenario: - if the buyers manage to keep the GBP/USD above 1.2360, additional gains towards the psychological level of 1.2400 (upper-limit of the ascending channel) may be witnessed. If this level is successfully breached, the next bullish target could be at 1.2450 (December 22 high). Till we do not advise to buy EURUSD.

Sell Scenario: - The GBP/USD pair is currently trading within an ascending regression channel, with the mid-point of the channel serving as a crucial resistance level at 1.2360. If this resistance level remains intact, the pair may retreat towards the lower limit of the ascending channel at 1.2320, which is also supported by the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). A four-hour close below this support could attract additional sellers and cause the pair to fall towards the psychological level of 1.2300 and the 50-period SMA at 1.2280. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -