Published on Apr 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 27-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(Netherlands) King's Birthday	None	EUR
02:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
02:30	(Australia) Export Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Import Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 7-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - GBP/USD is facing difficulty defending the gains made on the previous day, which were the most significant in three weeks. This is because buyers of the US Dollar are becoming cautious ahead of the release of the Q1 GDP data. As a result, the Pound Sterling is slightly weaker, trading at around 1.2465 in early trading on Thursday.

Markets are currently uncertain as traders take a breather after a volatile day, especially with mixed updates and a cautious mood prevailing before the release of critical US growth data.

One of the major risk catalysts is the US House of Representatives passing a bill that would allow the government to negotiate the extension of the debt ceiling. However, there is a likelihood that policymakers may remain at loggerheads due to the significant difference between the Republicans' and Democrats' demands. Similarly, the latest tax receipt figures from the US suggest that Goldman Sachs (GS) believes that the US Treasury Department can avoid the risk of a federal payments default until late July.

Buy Scenario: - GBP/USD is currently trading in a Rising Channel chart pattern on a two-hour scale. This means that every pullback is seen as an opportunity to buy. However, the Pound Sterling's lack of upside momentum is making it a vulnerable currency for market participants. Despite this, the Cable is still trading above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2468, indicating that the bullish bias is still intact. The asset is likely to face resistance around the April 14 high at 1.2545.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen back into the 40.00-60.00 range, which suggests a lack of momentum.

If the asset can decisively break above the April 13 high at 1.2537, it could move towards a fresh 10-month high at 1.2597, which was last seen on June 8, 2022. A further breakthrough could expose the asset to the May 27 high at 1.2667. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the asset falls below the April 10 low at 1.2345, it could potentially fall to the March 30 low at 1.2294, followed by the March 27 low at 1.2219. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -