Published on Apr 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 21-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
05:00	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
21:35	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/USD pair is currently stuck within a narrow range of around 1.2440 during the Tokyo session. As investors anticipate the release of the United Kingdom Retail Sales data for further guidance, the Cable is finding it difficult to make a decisive move.

In the Asian session, the S&P500 futures showed a flat-to-positive performance. On Thursday, US equities experienced a downturn due to mixed earnings from the banking sector and weak revenue guidance from Tesla. The overall market mood is risk-averse, but there is high activity in stock-specific actions.

Buy Scenario: - For the Pound to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.2472, it must avoid the pivot at $1.2438. If the Pound breaks through Thursday's high of $1.24677, it would signal an extended breakout session. However, this requires better-than-expected economic indicators and hawkish Bank of England (BoE) chatter to support a pre-US breakout session.

If the Pound sustains an extended rally, the next targets would be the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.2502 and resistance at $1.2550. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $1.2565. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, if the pair falls below the pivot, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.2409 would come into play. Unless there is a significant sell-off, the GBP/USD should avoid falling below sub-$1.2350. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.2375 should limit the downside, with the Third Major Support Level (S3) sitting at $1.2312. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -