Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 15-05-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During early Monday trading, GBP/USD is facing continued pressure around the mid-1.2400s, following its largest weekly loss since late January. As a result, the Cable pair remains a focus for bearish sentiment as it remains below key support lines, which now act as resistance levels, with no price-positive oscillators to provide support.

Buy Scenario: - Immediate recovery for the GBP/USD pair is limited by the convergence of the 21-DMA and an upward-sloping trendline from March 24, currently around 1.2510.

Beyond that, the key level to watch is the support-turned-resistance line that has been in place for two months, near 1.2600. A break above this level could potentially allow Pound Sterling bulls to regain control. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The bearish signals from the MACD indicator, along with a stable RSI (14), give the advantage to GBP/USD bears to extend the previous week's downside break of the support lines that have been in place since March. The fact that the quote continues to trade below the 21-day moving average (DMA) also adds to the bearish outlook.

Consequently, the Pound Sterling is likely to experience further declines towards the support of the 50-DMA, located near 1.2375.

However, there is a challenging obstacle for GBP/USD bears at the horizontal area around 1.2340, which has been a significant level since late March. If this level is breached, it could trigger a move towards the 1.2200 support zone, which includes the high from early March and the low from late March. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -