Published on Apr 13, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 13-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Employment Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Unemployment Rate	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Participation Rate	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 21-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 14-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Economic Activity YoY	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Private Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
14:00	(Canada) BoC Gov Macklem Speech	Medium	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - On Thursday at 06:00 GMT, the British economic calendar is set to release the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for February 2023, along with Trade Balance and Industrial Production details for the same period. This will be of significant interest to Cable traders.

Following a 0.3% increase in economic activity during January 2023, market participants will be keen to see the February GDP figures to gauge any potential signs of an economic slowdown.

Forecasts indicate that the UK GDP will show no growth in the British economy, with figures expected to be around 0.1% MoM for February. GBP/USD traders are also looking forward to the Index of Services (3M/3M) for the same period, which is likely to decline to -0.2% compared to the previous reading of 0.0%, providing further insight.

Buy Scenario: - GBP/USD is steadily moving towards the horizontal resistance placed at 1.2525, which is the high from April 04. The Cable experienced a surge of momentum after breaking out of the Falling Channel chart pattern.

The upward-sloping 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2466 suggests that there may be further upside in store.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 60.00-80.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is already active.

To continue its upward trajectory, the Cable needs to surpass the psychological resistance level of 1.2500, which would propel it towards the high of April 04 at 1.2525. A break above this level could potentially lead to a fresh nine-month high at 1.2597, which was last seen on June 08, 2022. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a break below the round-level support of 1.2400 would expose the asset to the low of April 10 at 1.2344, followed by the low of March 30 at 1.2294. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -