Published on May 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 11-05-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Bank Lending YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Current Account	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) BoJ Summary of Opinions	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Current	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Monetary Policy Report	High	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
15:15	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
18:30	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/USD pair has retreated from its intraday high, slipping back to 1.2620 as it reflects the market's cautious mood ahead of the highly anticipated Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting. As a result, the Pound Sterling pair has remained unchanged throughout the day, with traders showing indecision for the past three days, leading into the London open on "Super Thursday".

The Cable pair experienced a surge to a new high, not seen since April 2022, following negative US inflation data on the previous day. However, the pre-BoE consolidation combined with the US Dollar's corrective bounce has influenced the latest movements of the GBP/USD pair.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, the first resistance is located at the mid-point of the ascending channel at 1.2650. If the GBP/USD pair manages to rise above this level and uses it as support, it could potentially target 1.2670 (Monday's high) and the psychological level of 1.2700. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The GBP/USD pair is currently trading within the lower half of an ascending regression channel. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart is hovering near 50, indicating a lack of directional momentum.

In terms of potential downside, interim support can be found at the psychological level of 1.2600, followed by the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the four-hour chart at 1.2565, which represents the lower limit of the ascending channel. If the GBP/USD pair closes below this level, it could attract sellers and push the pair towards the psychological level of 1.2500 and the 100-period SMA. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -