Published on Apr 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 11-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) NAB Business Confidence	High	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) M2 Money Supply YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) New Yuan Loans	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) Total Social Financing	Low	CNY
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Fed Harker Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/USD pair has declined to a new intraday low, continuing the previous week's retreat from its 10-month high. This downward trend is being driven by a risk-averse market sentiment and an increase in bets on the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which has caused the US dollar to rebound. It is worth noting that these events are occurring during the Easter Monday holiday.

Investors will be closely monitoring Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech as major central banks appear to be losing their hawkish bias. This speech could provide insights into the Bank of England's stance on monetary policy and its potential impact on the GBP/USD pair.

Buy Scenario: - GBP/USD has seen its first daily gains in five, reaching around 1.2390, as markets return to full capacity on Tuesday. This recovery comes after the pair hit its lowest level in a week. However, the GBP/USD pair faces challenges, as it has been unable to break through the 10-day moving average (DMA) hurdle, and there is a bear cross on the MACD. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from the overbought territory, indicating a downside bias.

For the latest rebound to be sustained, GBP/USD needs to stay below the 10-DMA hurdle of 1.2405. Even if the pair manages to cross this resistance, it could face further challenges from a four-month-old horizontal line and a previous support trend line, which are respectively located near 1.2445 and 1.2510. Furthermore, the multi-month high of 1.2525 from last week could act as a significant barrier for buyers. Till then we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, the support line from March 24, located around 1.2355, restricts the immediate downside of the GBP/USD pair. However, if this support line is broken, the pair could quickly drop towards 1.2300 and then to February’s high of approximately 1.2270. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -