Published on Apr 6, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 06-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Maundy Thursday	None	USD
01:00	(Portugal) Maundy Thursday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Financial Stability Review	Medium	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Composite PMI	Low	CNY
02:45	(China) Caixin Services PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:45	(Switzerland) Unemployment Rate	High	CHF
07:00	(Finland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	CHF
08:30	(Euro Area) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Construction PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Italy) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI	Medium	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Hourly Wages YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Participation Rate	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Employment Change	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Unemployment Rate	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:00	(Ecuador) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair is hovering close to Wednesday's low at 1.2440. There are expectations that the Cable may continue its downward trend, as geopolitical tensions between the United States and China regarding Taiwan have negatively affected the overall market sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - In GBP/USD the recovery moves need to cross the latest peak of 1.2525 to convince the Cable buyers to return to the table. If this level is surpassed, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its moves between November 2022 and March 2023, close to 1.2605, may pose a challenge for the GBP/USD bulls.

If the pair remains firmer past 1.2605, the May 2022 high of around 1.2665-70 could challenge the upside momentum. Overall, despite trading sluggishly in recent times, the GBP/USD remains on the bull's side. Till then we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - The GBP/USD currency pair is currently moving within the range of 1.2460-55 during the mid-Asian session on Thursday, struggling to establish a clear direction. After hitting its highest levels since June 2022, the pair experienced a reversal on the previous day, resulting in its first daily loss in three days. This occurred due to an overbought RSI (14).

However, despite the bearish signal, a four-month-old resistance line is joining the bullish MACD signals to challenge the GBP/USD bears in recent trading. If the quote drops below the resistance-turned-support level around 1.2450-45, an upward-sloping support line from mid-March at around 1.2410 could serve as the last defense for the GBP/USD buyers.

If the support level is broken, the bears could target the February 14 swing high at around 1.2270 before moving towards the Year-To-Date low marked in March around 1.1800. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -