Published on Apr 5, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 05-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Ai Group Industry Index	Medium	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Ai Group Construction Index	Low	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing Index	Low	AUD
01:00	(China) Qingming Festival	None	CNY
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Services PMI	Low	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) RBA Chart Pack	Low	AUD
03:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	Medium	NZD
03:30	(Australia) RBA Gov Lowe Speech	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoY	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 7-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(United States) ADP Employment Change	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Imports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Exports	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Balance of Trade	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Exports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Imports	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Balance of Trade	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD

Today's Scenario: - Bullish and bearish forces are currently at odds around the 10-month high of 1.2500 for the GBP/USD pair as investors anticipate significant economic data from the US and UK on Wednesday. The overall mood remains cautious ahead of these critical statistics, but recent corrective bounces in both US dollar and yields have provided some respite for GBP/USD buyers.

It remains to be seen how the upcoming data will affect the GBP/USD pair, and investors are likely to remain cautious until the results are known. However, the current breather in the Cable pair's bullish trend suggests that there may be room for a further upside movement if economic data is positive for the UK.

Buy Scenario: - GBP/USD buyers are currently in control, with the pair trading near its highest levels since June 2022 and hovering around 1.2500 on Wednesday. The pair saw its biggest daily gains in three weeks on the previous day, breaking through an essential horizontal resistance level that has been present since mid-December 2022. This level now serves as immediate support at around 1.2450-45. The bullish MACD signals have added to the momentum of the uptrend.

If the pair clears the resistance level at 1.2550, it would invalidate the bearish chart pattern and likely propel GBP/USD towards the May 2022 high of around 1.2665. However, buyers should keep an eye on the 1.2600 round figure and the September 2020 low near 1.2675 as additional resistance levels to watch for during further upside. Till then we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - However, the RSI (14) is near the overbought territory, indicating a possible pullback in GBP/USD prices before they make their next move upwards. Additionally, a bearish rising wedge chart pattern has emerged over the past month, with resistance levels currently between 1.2550 and 1.2390. If the pair drops below 1.2390, it would confirm the bearish formation and could lead to a revisit of the 2023 bottom, around 1.1800 by the press time. However, the 50-DMA and 100-DMA converging near 1.2155-50 are significant support levels to watch in the event of a fall. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -