Published on Apr 3, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 03-04-2023

GBP/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Small Manufacturers Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large All Industry Capex	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	High	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:15	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Home Loans MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Investment Lending for Homes	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) CPI	High	CHF
07:45	(France) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR

09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP

09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 3-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) BoC Business Outlook Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:15	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Capacity Utilization	Low	NZD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Business Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to defend its significant support level of 1.2300. However, the pair experienced a sharp decline during the early Tokyo session as investors appeared to downplay the potential impact of higher oil prices, despite OPEC+ announcing further oil production cuts.

Buy Scenario: - If the pair manages to move above its March 29 high at 1.2362, it could head towards its March 31 high at 1.2424 followed by the psychological resistance level at 1.2500. Till then we do not advise to buy EURUSD.

Sell Scenario: - The GBP/USD pair has been in a declining phase since encountering selling pressure around its March 31 high at 1.2424. This selling pressure caused the pair to break its higher high higher low structure by falling below its March 30 low at 1.2300, which is likely to attract more downside momentum.

Moreover, the pair has also fallen firmly below its 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.2327 and 1.2300, respectively, indicating a bearish short-term trend.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has dropped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting that downside momentum has intensified.

Looking ahead, if the GBP/USD pair breaks below its March 23 low at 1.2261, it could accelerate further downside towards the round-level support at 1.2200 and its March 10 high at 1.2113. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -