Daily Analysis For GBP/USD  02-05-2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/USD 02-05-2023

GBP/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/USD
Economic Events: -
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Montenegro) Labor dayNoneEUR
01:01(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMILowEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Australia) RBA Interest Rate DecisionHighAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
06:00(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMILowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoMMediumGBP
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Switzerland) Consumer ConfidenceHighCHF
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployment RateHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployed PersonsLowEUR
08:30(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMIHighCHF
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index CurrentLowUSD
10:00(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:30(Germany) Index-Linked Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
11:00(Spain) New Car Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Greece) Total Credit YoYLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI YoYLowEUR
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job QuitsLowUSD
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job OpeningsHighUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders ex TransportationLowUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
17:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
17:00(Italy) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
22:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability ReportMediumNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Participation RateLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoYLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQHighNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Unemployment RateHighNZD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently hovering near the highest levels since June 2022, following two consecutive weeks of gains. Traders are gearing up for a key week, which includes multiple central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve, as well as the release of the US jobs report. The Cable pair is trading around 1.2570 and is defending the previous day's gains near the multi-day high during early Monday in Asia.
Hopes of another positive development on the Brexit front, specifically easier travel to and from Europe during the holiday season, initially supported the GBP/USD pair's upward momentum in the previous week. This could be linked to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's push for rules that can help boost holiday spirits after the long-awaited Brexit deal is sealed.

Buy Scenario: - For the GBP/USD currency pair to achieve an extended breakout session, it needs to surpass the $1.2515 pivot and target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.2549, with the Monday high of $1.25692 being the next target. Breaking through the $1.2550 mark would confirm the bullish trend, but the Pound would also need economic data from the US to support the breakout session.
If the rally continues, the GBP/USD pair would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.2604, with the Third Major Resistance Level sitting at $1.2693. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/USD.

Sell Scenario: - However, if the currency pair fails to surpass the pivot, it would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.2461 in play. Unless there's a sell-off triggered by US data, the GBP/USD pair should stay above the sub-$1.24 mark, with the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.2426 acting as a crucial support level. The ultimate support level is the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $1.2337. Till then we do not advise selling GBP/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 1.2461-R1 1.2551
S2 1.2426-R2 1.2606
S3 1.2371-R3 1.2642


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