Published on Mar 30, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 30-03-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
01:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
04:35	(Japan) 2-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB General Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Economic Bulletin	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Corporate Profits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	USD
14:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
17:00	(Switzerland) SNB Gov Maechler Speech	Low	CHF
17:45	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - GBP/JPY surged to 163.47 on the back of broad Yen weakness, rising from 161.34. The Japanese Yen faced downward pressure after Japan's government approved ¥2.2tn of reserve money to address rising price pressures.

Despite this, analysts at Rabobank suggest that the Bank of Japan's opportunity to tighten monetary policy appears to be even narrower than before the banking crisis. The BoJ is unlikely to tighten policy if the US economy is on the verge of a recession, further limiting the central bank's options.

Buy Scenario: - The GBP/JPY pair experienced a significant rally during Wednesday's trading session, breaking above the 162.50 level. However, there is a more important level of resistance near 165. The Bank of Japan's yield curve control continues to play a role in the market's movement, as they are aiming to keep the 10-year yield below 50 basis points. The market remains in a range, but if the pair manages to close above 165, it could potentially rise to 167.50. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - if signs of exhaustion appear, shorting the market may be more favorable. The 160-level is a significant support level to watch. It's important to be cautious and keep position sizes reasonable due to the market's noisy behavior and uncertainty regarding central banks' interest rate policies. The GBP/JPY pair is also correlated with risk appetite, rising as risk appetite increases and falling during struggles. The Japanese yen could strengthen if people become concerned and start buying bonds, driving down yields due to yield curve control, we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -