Published on Apr 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 28-04-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI QoQ	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision	High	JPY
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
06:30	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(European Union) Informal ECOFIN Meeting	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) SNB Jordan Speech	Low	CHF
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Wages QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:00	(Canada) Budget Balance	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - GBP/JPY has surged to reach a new yearly high around 168.15, as buyers react positively to the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its monetary policy unchanged. The Yen weakness and technical breakout, coupled with the release of upbeat sentiment data from the UK, have also bolstered the cross-currency pair's upward momentum.

The BoJ's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rates at -0.10% and the 0.50% band of the Yield Curve Control policy was widely anticipated by the market. However, the central bank's statement that it will take further easing measures if necessary, while aiming for market stability, has provided additional support for the GBP/JPY bulls.

The technical breakout and positive UK sentiment data have also contributed to the pair's rally. The GBP/JPY's ability to break through key resistance levels and the release of better-than-expected sentiment data from the UK has boosted investor confidence in the British economy and its currency, further supporting the pair's upward trajectory.

Buy Scenario: - The GBP/JPY pair has been showing an upward bias, but it faces resistance at around the 168.00 level. Although it has posted two consecutive days of gains, failure to surpass 168.00 could lead to downside risks. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are still present.

On the other hand, the Rate of Change (RoC) shows that buyers are still active, which could lead to a possible rally. If buyers can push past 168.00, that could further increase the upward momentum towards the swing high of December 13 at 169.27. However, there are some obstacles to overcome on the way up.

The first hurdle is the YTD high at 167.97, located near the 168.00 level. A break above this level would expose the last cycle high in December at 169.27. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - Alternatively, if the GBP/JPY falls below 167.00, it could exacerbate a decline towards the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 165.85, followed by the latest week's low at 165.42, before testing the 50-day EMA at 164.21. Till we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -