Published on Apr 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 27-04-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(Netherlands) King's Birthday	None	EUR
02:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
02:30	(Australia) Export Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Import Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 7-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP initially dipped lower to test support around the 1.65 level before rebounding with strength. Despite some volatility, the overall trend for the GBP/JPY pair remains bullish. The market is seeing plenty of value buyers, and the pair is likely being driven by the strength of the Japanese yen. This means that the current market is more of a "buy on the dips" situation.

Buy Scenario: - If the 165 level is broken, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could provide support, but a break below that would be more significant. It's important to pay attention to risk appetite, as it will likely be the main driver of market behavior. Currently, buyers are in control, and it's advisable to look for value during drops. The market seems to be aiming for the 170 level, and breaking above that would be a bullish sign. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - If the market does drop, the 50-day EMA is rising and could provide support, but a break below that could lead to a drop to the 200-day EMA near the 162.50 level. However, this scenario seems unlikely. It's important to keep in mind that the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy is likely to keep the yen relatively weak against other currencies, particularly as interest rates rise globally. Till we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -