Published on Mar 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 24-03-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
0:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
0:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
3:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
8:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Netherlands) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air	Low	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
16:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/JPY pair experienced a surge in buying interest after plummeting to around 160.00 during the early Asian trading session. The cross has found support as investors digest the Bank of England's (BoE) dovish comments on interest rate guidance. The UK economy has been experiencing persistent inflation due to factors such as higher food prices, a shortage of labor, and recent spikes in energy costs, creating challenges for BoE policymakers over an extended period of time.

Buy Scenario: - If the GBP/JPY manages to break above the support-turned-resistance line around 161.25, it will need further confirmation from the EMA confluence at 161.70-80 to bring back the buying interest. However, even if the buyers manage to regain control, they will face a significant challenge at a descending resistance line that has been in place for a month, located near 163.00. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - GBP/JPY is trading near its intraday low around 160.30 on early Friday, extending its decline for the past two days towards a short-term key support level. The cross-currency pair's bearish bias is supported by the previous day's downside break of a one-week-old support line, which now acts as immediate resistance around 161.25. The GBP/JPY sellers are also encouraged by the bearish MACD signals and the lack of oversold RSI (14), which point towards further downside potential. The ascending support line from January 13, currently around 159.20, is the main focus of the pair's bearish sentiment. A drop below this level may validate a decline towards the monthly low of 159.56, and if broken, the GBP/JPY may target the February low of 156.73, we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -