Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 22-03-2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 22-03-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis
GBP/JPY
Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoMLowAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoYHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoMLowGBP
08:00(Slovakia) Current AccountLowEUR
08:00(Switzerland) Current AccountMediumCHF
08:45(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current Account s.aLowEUR
09:30(Euro Area) ECB Lane SpeechMediumEUR
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Current AccountLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 10-Year Bund AuctionMediumEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoMLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoYLowEUR
11:00(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends OrdersMediumGBP
11:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
11:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
11:30(Portugal) Current AccountLowEUR
12:05(Germany) Bundesbank Mauderer SpeechLowEUR
12:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index MoMMediumCAD
12:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index YoYMediumCAD
13:45(Euro Area) ECB Panetta SpeechLowEUR
14:00(Kosovo) Balance of TradeLowEUR
14:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
14:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel SpeechLowEUR
17:30(Canada) BoC Summary of DeliberationsMediumCAD
18:00(United States) Fed Interest Rate DecisionHighUSD
18:00(United States) FOMC Economic ProjectionsHighUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - LongerMediumUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - CurrentMediumUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - 2nd YrMediumUSD
18:00(United States) Interest Rate Projection - 1st YrMediumUSD
18:30(United States) Fed Press ConferenceHighUSD
23:00(Japan) Reuters Tankan IndexMediumJPY
Today's Scenario: - The GBP/JPY pair has risen to near the 162.00 resistance level in early European trading. The pair is expected to have a bullish bias ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy announcement. The BoE is expected to conclude its policy meeting on Thursday with a 25 basis point rate hike, despite concerns of a banking crisis and a bleak economic outlook.
Before the BoE meeting, the focus will be on UK inflation data. The market anticipates a drop in the annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 9.8% from the previous release of 10.1%. However, the core CPI, which excludes oil and food prices, is expected to remain steady at 5.8%. If the inflation rate is higher than expected, it could increase the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike announcement from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
Buy Scenario: - GBP/JPY is attempting to break out of an Inverted Head and Shoulders chart pattern on the hourly chart, with the neckline drawn from the high on March 17 at 162.19. A successful breakout could lead to significant gains and high trading volumes to the upside.
The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 161.77 is currently supporting the GBP/JPY bulls.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has yet to enter the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which would signal a shift in momentum towards the upside.
If the pair manages to break above the March 17 high at 162.19, it could continue towards the March 08 high at around 163.00, followed by the horizontal resistance drawn from the March 10 high at 164.24. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.
Sell Scenario: - If GBP/JPY breaks below the low of March 21 at 160.76, it could potentially move down towards the low of March 17 at 160.16. If the cross breaches this level, it may further decline towards the low of March 20 around 159.00. Till we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 161.01-R1 162.51
S2 160.14-R2 163.14
S3 159.51-R3 164.01

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