Published on Mar 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 21-03-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
02:30	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:25	(Switzerland) SNB 2022 Annual Report	Low	CHF
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
12:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales MoM	High	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
15:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
17:30	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
20:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
21:00	(New Zealand) Westpac Consumer Confidence	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - GBP/JPY is trading lower by 0.18% near the intraday low of 160.76, as concerns over Brexit and the Bank of England's upcoming decision weigh on the currency pair. The holiday in Japan is limiting the pair's movement, while mixed feelings about the banking crisis also add to the uncertainty.

The DUP Leader has expressed concerns about post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland and confirmed that the party will oppose the deal known as the Windsor Framework, which will be voted on by MPs on Wednesday.

Buy Scenario: - It's important to remember that GBP/JPY is highly influenced by risk appetite, which is currently fluctuating due to recent events such as the bailout of a major Swiss bank. With uncertainty looming, it's best to approach this pair with caution.

If the pair retreats from current levels, it may drop to the 157.50 support area, which has held up well in the past. A break below that level could take it down to 155. On the other hand, if it breaks above the moving averages, it could test the 162.50 resistance level, with 165 above that as a significant hurdle.

Overall, it appears that the market is range-bound between 160 and 165 for now. However, given the fluidity of the markets and the many concerns at play, this could change quickly. Using a range-bound trading system with reasonable position sizing could be a successful approach but be prepared for increased volatility. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - The GBP/JPY currency pair is currently trading lower and remains under pressure. The pair is trading between a resistance line that has been sloping downwards since October 2022 and an ascending support line that has been in place since January 13. The resistance line is currently located around the 162.90 level, while the support line is near 158.80. The pair's inability to break above the resistance line and its decline towards the support line suggests that the bears are currently in control of the market. Till we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -