Published on May 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 11-05-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Bank Lending YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Current Account	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) BoJ Summary of Opinions	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Current	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
08:00	(Slovakia) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Monetary Policy Report	High	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
15:15	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
18:30	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The GBP/JPY saw a decline from its daily high of 171.17, as safe-haven currencies gained following the release of US inflation data. The pair dropped over 100 pips, reaching the 169.00 handle as traders awaited another potential interest rate hike from the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE is currently working to tackle inflation, which is at around 10%.

Buy Scenario: - if the GBP/JPY pair reclaims the 170.00 level, the next resistance would be at the May 9 daily high of 170.71. If the pair manages to breach this level, it could pave the way for a test of the May 10 daily high of 171.17. Once above these levels, the pair could aim for the year-to-date high at 172.13. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - The GBP/JPY pair experienced a bearish reversal, dropping towards the 169.50 level following three days of gains. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the bullish territory but has started to decline, indicating a loss of momentum among buyers ahead of the Bank of England's (BoE) decision. The 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) has turned negative, allowing sellers to enter new positions.

If the GBP/JPY pair falls below the 169.00 level, the next support would be the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 168.33, followed by the April 19 high at 167.97. Once below these levels, the pair could find support at the December 20 high, which has turned into support at 167.01. Till we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -