Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 05-04-2023

Daily Analysis For GBP/JPY 05-04-2023

GBP/JPY Analysis
GBP/JPY
Economic Events and Scenario for GBP/JPY
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Industry IndexMediumAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Construction IndexLowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing IndexLowAUD
01:00(China) Qingming FestivalNoneCNY
01:01(Ireland) AIB Services PMILowEUR
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMILowJPY
02:30(Australia) RBA Chart PackLowAUD
03:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate DecisionMediumNZD
03:30(Australia) RBA Gov Lowe SpeechHighAUD
07:00(Germany) Factory Orders MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Industrial Production MoMMediumEUR
08:00(Spain) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoYLowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
10:00(Italy) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Current AccountLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 7-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
11:00(Spain) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
11:00(Ireland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:15(United States) ADP Employment ChangeHighUSD
13:30(Canada) ImportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) ExportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Balance of TradeHighCAD
13:30(United States) ExportsMediumUSD
13:30(United States) ImportsMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Balance of TradeHighUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(Euro Area) ECB Lane SpeechLowEUR
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Canada) 10-Year Bond AuctionLowCAD
Today's Scenario: - As Tokyo opens on Wednesday, USD/JPY sees a decline to refresh its intraday low near 131.40. This marks the third consecutive day of losses for the yen pair after reversing from the 100-DMA last week. The convergence of the 50-DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which was breached at around 133.05, adds to the bearish sentiment for USD/JPY.
Moreover, the steady RSI (14) and sluggish MACD signals further strengthen the downside bias. Nevertheless, the RSI level is below 50, suggesting the possibility of dip-buying, which highlights the significance of the upward-sloping support line from January 16, located close to 130.70. If the quote drops below 130.70, the possibility of a break of the psychological magnet at 130.00 cannot be ruled out. Conversely, the short-term advances of the USD/JPY pair may face resistance around 133.05, comprising the 50-DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Further, the 100-DMA and a downward-sloping trend line from late October 2022, located respectively near 133.65 and 135.00, could challenge the yen pair buyers. However, it's worth noting that the USD/JPY's run-up beyond 135.00 may confront the Year-To-Date (YTD) high around 137.90.
Buy Scenario: - The GBP/JPY pair showed significant strength and broke out to a fresh new high against the Japanese yen, reaching above the 166 level. This rally was triggered by the Bank of Japan's announcement that they would allow the 10-year JGB to rise to 50 basis points instead of 25. As a result, the Japanese yen is expected to continue losing ground against most currencies, including the pound. Till we do not advise to buy GBP/JPY.
Sell Scenario: - However, the market is entering a noisy area, which may prevent a simple take-off to the upside. But as long as the pound can stay above the 164 level, there could be buyers on dips in the future. Additionally, the 50-day EMA is starting to shift to the upside and breaking above the 200-day EMA, forming a "golden cross." While this is a good sign for longer-term players, it is still early to call for a longer-term breakout.
Going forward, traders will be looking for value and paying attention to interest rates, as the Japanese yen takes a hit when rates rise. The Bank of Japan is continuing its yield curve control monetary policy, which further affects the yen. This pair is considered turbocharged compared to other yen-related pairs, providing an indication of where other yen-related pairs may be heading. Overall, the market has formed a strong candle, suggesting that there is significant interest in the pair., we do not advise to sell GBP/JPY.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 163.76-R1 165.98
S2 162.86-R2 167.30
S3 161.54-R3 168.20

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