Published on Mar 31, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 31-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Malta) Freedom Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
01:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(China) NBS Non Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
02:30	(China) NBS Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
02:30	(China) NBS General PMI	Low	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQ	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Current Account	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) Current Account	Low	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Wage Growth YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(Belgium) Current Account	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Soy	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Corn	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Wheat	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Prospective Plantings - Cotton	Low	USD
18:00	(El Salvador) Current Account	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
19:00	(El Salvador) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	USD
19:00	(El Salvador) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	USD
20:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
22:45	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD is currently maintaining a protective stance around the level of 1.0910, after recently reaching a weekly high of 1.0925 during the early hours of Friday. The Euro currency pair reflects the overall apprehensive sentiment in the market as investors remain cautious before crucial inflation indicators are released from both Eurozone and the US.

Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair continues to be a focal point for bullish traders, unless there is a significant drop below the 1.0750 level. However, the potential for further upside movement appears to be limited, with today's inflation numbers serving as the primary catalyst for market movements.

It is important to note that inflation numbers are a crucial factor in determining the market's direction, as they provide insight into the economic landscape and potential monetary policy changes. Therefore, traders are likely to closely monitor these numbers and adjust their positions accordingly, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - If the EUR/USD bulls choose to disregard the RSI (14) conditions, and are supported by fundamental factors, and successfully cross the 1.0935 barrier, there is a possibility of witnessing a rally towards the yearly high set in January at around 1.1035.

On the other hand, a support line that has been ascending for two weeks, and is currently close to 1.0850, is limiting the short-term downside of the EUR/USD.

Subsequently, the buyers of the EUR/USD will have the 50-SMA level at around 1.0820 and the mid-March high near 1.0750 as their last lines of defense. If these levels are broken, the quote could drop quickly towards the monthly low of around 1.0515. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -