Published on Mar 30, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 30-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
01:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
04:35	(Japan) 2-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB General Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Economic Bulletin	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Corporate Profits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	USD
14:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
17:00	(Switzerland) SNB Gov Maechler Speech	Low	CHF
17:45	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - In the early hours of the European market, the EUR/USD pair is rebounding from its previous losses yet struggling to stay above the 1.0850 level. The US Dollar is experiencing a new wave of selling pressure against its major counterparts due to a slight shift in market sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook. However, any significant gains in the currency pair seem unlikely at the moment, as investors await the release of inflation data from Spain and Germany, which could influence the future direction of the Euro.

Buy Scenario: - For the EUR/USD pair to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0871 and Wednesday's high of $1.08716, it needs to surpass the $1.0844 pivot. A bullish session could be signaled by a return to $1.0850. However, for a breakout session, the currency pair requires hawkish statements from the European Central Bank (ECB) and hotter-than-expected inflation figures.

If the bulls continue to drive the pair, they may test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0898 and resistance at $1.09. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $1.0952, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - Failure to move past the pivot would keep the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0817 in play. However, unless a data-driven sell-off occurs, the EUR/USD pair is unlikely to fall below $1.075. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0790 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) is located at $1.0737. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -