Published on Mar 29, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 29-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:30	(Australia) Monthly CPI Indicator	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) GfK Consumer Confidence	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Economic Sentiment Index	Low	CHF
09:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) Net Lending to Individuals MoM	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Consumer Credit	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Approvals	Medium	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) Mortgage Lending	Medium	GBP
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 6-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
14:00	(Switzerland) SNB Quarterly Bulletin	Low	CHF
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair is facing resistance at the weekly high as traders of the Euro adopt a cautious stance in anticipation of critical German indicators. The retreat of the currency pair may gain momentum due to higher yields and a resurgence of the US Dollar amidst conflicting market sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - To achieve the target of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0862, the EUR/USD must avoid the pivot point of $1.0829. If the currency pair surpasses Tuesday's high of $1.08485, it would indicate a bullish trading session. However, for a breakout session, the EUR/USD requires optimistic statements from the European Central Bank and better-than-anticipated consumer confidence figures.

If the bulls continue their advance, they may challenge the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.0882 and the $1.09 resistance. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is currently situated at $1.0936, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, falling below the pivot point would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0809 into the picture. Nevertheless, unless there is a data-driven sell-off, the EUR/USD pair is likely to remain above $1.075. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0775 should provide support for any downside movements. Finally, the Third Major Support Level (S3) is located at $1.0721.

Analyzing the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs suggest bullish sentiment. The EUR/USD is currently trading above the 50-day EMA ($1.07746). The 50-day EMA has diverged from the 100-day EMA, and the 100-day EMA has expanded from the 200-day EMA, resulting in bullish indicators.

Maintaining a hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($1.07746) would indicate a breakout from R1 ($1.0862), allowing the bulls to aim for R2 ($1.0882) and $1.09. However, if the EUR/USD falls below S1 ($1.0809), S2 ($1.0775), and the 50-day EMA ($1.07746) would come into play, indicating bearish sentiment. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -