Published on Apr 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For EURUSD 28-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) Car Production YoY	Low	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Retail Sales MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private Sector Credit MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) PPI QoQ	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Housing Credit MoM	Medium	AUD
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision	High	JPY
04:00	(Japan) BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Housing Starts YoY	Medium	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Construction Orders YoY	Low	JPY
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(France) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
06:30	(France) Household Consumption MoM	Low	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY	High	EUR
06:30	(Germany) North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales MoM	High	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Retail Sales YoY	High	CHF
07:45	(France) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) KOF Leading Indicators	Medium	CHF
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
08:55	(Germany) Unemployed Persons	Medium	EUR
09:00	(European Union) Informal ECOFIN Meeting	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Bavaria CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Brandenburg CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Hesse CPI YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
09:00	(Spain) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) SNB Jordan Speech	Low	CHF
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) CPI	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Germany) Saxony CPI YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Greece) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) Industrial Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
13:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) GDP MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost - Wages QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Price Index MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index YoY	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Price Index MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Income MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Personal Spending MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Employment Cost Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
14:45	(United States) Chicago PMI	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:00	(Canada) Budget Balance	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the early hours of Friday in Europe, the EUR/USD pair is seen holding onto slight losses near 1.1020, attempting to maintain bearish momentum that was witnessed the previous day. This current behavior of the pair is an accurate representation of the market's uneasiness in anticipation of the significant growth numbers from the European bloc, as well as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

Despite the soft US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and mixed Eurozone sentiment numbers, EUR/USD retreated from a 13-month high on Thursday. The cause of this pullback could be attributed to the lack of comments from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve officials, who are expected to hold their respective monetary policy meetings next week. The upbeat inflation signals from the GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices for Q1 could also have contributed to the Euro sellers' actions.

Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale, which indicates a contraction in volatility. The upward-sloping trendline of this chart pattern is plotted from the low on April 10th at 1.0837, while the horizontal resistance is placed from the high on April 14th at 1.0760.

As of now, the asset is overlapping with the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1030, indicating a sideways trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range.

The EUR/USD pair is expected to show a significant movement after the release of Eurozone economic data. To capture more gains, the major currency pair will need to decisively surpass the round-level resistance of 1.1100. If this happens, the asset could reach a fresh 13-month high at 1.1185, which was last seen on March 31st, 2022, followed by the high on February 28th, 2022, at 1.1246, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the flip side, if the asset moves downwards below the low on April 12th at 1.0915, it could fall towards the low on April 10th at 1.0837 and the low on April 03rd at 1.0788. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -