Published on Feb 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 28-02-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events : -

GMT		Event	Currency
06:00	-	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
06:00	-	(Finland) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
07:45	-	(France) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
07:45	-	(France) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
07:45	-	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	EUR
07:45	-	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	EUR
08:00	-	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
08:00	-	(Austria) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
08:00	-	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	EUR
08:00	-	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	EUR
10:00	-	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
10:00	-	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
10:00	-	(Greece) Retail Sales YoY	EUR
11:00	-	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
11:00	-	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
11:00	-	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate YoY	EUR
11:00	-	(Portugal) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	EUR
13:30	-	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	USD
13:30	-	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	USD
13:30	-	(United States) Goods Trade Balance	USD
14:00	-	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	USD
14:00	-	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	USD
14:45	-	(United States) Chicago PMI	USD
15:00	-	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	USD
21:30	-	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	USD

Today's Scenario : - Early on Tuesday, there was a brief pause for EUR/USD bulls around the 1.0600 level. This followed their impressive performance the day before, which saw the currency pair record its largest daily gain in nearly a month. However, despite this recent upswing, the major currency pair is still heading towards its first monthly loss in five.

Although there was a slight slowdown in momentum, EUR/USD bulls can still take comfort in the fact that they managed to bounce back from their previous losses. The gains made on Monday were substantial, but the overall trend suggests that the pair is still struggling to regain its footing in the market.

Buy Scenario : - It is important to note that the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the EUR/USD pair's movements between late November 2022 and early February 2023 indicate that 1.0530 is a critical support level.

However, the bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the negative Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 14 periods, coupled with the pair's recent lack of movement around the 1.0600 level, present a challenge for the bulls below the 50-day EMA barrier at 1.0665.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair is still on the radar of bullish traders, but any upward momentum needs confirmation from a break of the 1.0665 hurdle. If this level is breached, it could quickly push the pair towards the mid-February swing high of around 1.0800, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - In the meantime, if the resistance-turned-support line near 1.0585 is broken to the downside, the EUR/USD pair could retreat towards the support confluence at 1.0530.

However, it's important to note that if the pair weakens beyond 1.0530, it could face significant resistance to the downside. The lows recorded in January 2023 and early December 2022 could pose a challenge for the bears at 1.0480 and 1.0440, respectively. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level : -