Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 26-04-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 26-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
02:30(Australia) RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Weighted Median CPI YoYHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQHighAUD
02:30(Australia) Inflation Rate QoQMediumAUD
02:30(Australia) Inflation Rate YoYHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoYHighAUD
02:30(Australia) CPIHighAUD
02:30(Australia) Monthly CPI IndicatorHighAUD
04:00(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoYLowNZD
04:35(Japan) 2-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Netherlands) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
07:00(Germany) GfK Consumer ConfidenceHighEUR
07:45(France) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
08:30(Euro Area) ECB Enria SpeechLowEUR
09:00(Austria) Bank Austria Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Switzerland) Economic Sentiment IndexLowCHF
09:30(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQLowGBP
09:30(Slovenia) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
09:30(Slovenia) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 6-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:20(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick SpeechLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 15-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Balance of TradeLowEUR
11:00(France) Jobseekers TotalLowEUR
11:00(France) Unemployment Benefit ClaimsMediumEUR
11:00(United Kingdom) CBI Distributive TradesMediumGBP
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:00(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Goods Trade BalanceHighUSD
13:30(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex AirLowUSD
13:30(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoMHighUSD
14:45(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen SpeechLowEUR
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 2-Year FRN AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Canada) 30-Year Bond AuctionLowCAD
18:00(United States) 5-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
18:30(Canada) BoC Summary of DeliberationsMediumCAD
Today's Scenario: - As Wednesday's European session approaches, the EUR/USD currency pair appears to be stagnant around the 1.0980 mark. The bearish momentum that caused the largest daily loss in a month and a half seems to have taken a pause. However, the Euro's recent movements may face resistance due to a cautious sentiment prevailing ahead of the release of US Durable Goods Orders data for March. Analysts expect the upcoming figures to show an improvement to 0.8%, compared to the previous -1.0%.
Investors will likely closely monitor the Durable Goods Orders data as it provides insight into the purchasing trends of US consumers for long-lasting goods, such as appliances and vehicles. This information is crucial as it helps in forecasting the overall economic growth of the United States. A better-than-expected reading could boost market confidence in the US economy and the US dollar.
On the other hand, if the data fails to meet the anticipated levels, it could lead to a bearish outlook for the USD. This scenario could provide a favorable environment for the EUR/USD pair to make gains.
Buy Scenario: - if there is an upside break of the 50-SMA hurdle at 1.0980, it will need to be validated by the psychological magnet of 1.1000 to convince the Euro bulls.
After that, for the EUR/USD pair to keep the bulls on board, it will be crucial to cross the descending resistance line from mid-April. This line is currently close to 1.1065 at the latest, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.
Sell Scenario: - It's important to note that the EUR/USD quote is hesitant to accept bids, and the bearish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) join a mostly stable Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 14. This has kept the sellers of EUR/USD hopeful.
However, for the Euro sellers to be convinced, there needs to be a clear downside break of the 1.0955 support confluence. This support confluence includes the 100-SMA and the aforementioned trend line.
Even if this happens, the 200-SMA level of 1.0865 can still act as the last line of defense for the EUR/USD buyers. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.0991-R1 1.1076
S2 1.0937-R2 1.1105
S3 1.0907-R3 1.1160

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