Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 24-05-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 24-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Japan) Reuters Tankan IndexMediumJPY
01:00(Ecuador) The Battle of PichinchaNoneUSD
02:00(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoMLowAUD
03:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate DecisionMediumNZD
04:00(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoYLowUSD
04:00(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoMLowUSD
04:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Press ConferenceMediumNZD
06:00(Finland) Export Prices YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Import Prices YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) PPI YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoMMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoYHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoMLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoYLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoMLowGBP
08:00(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy MeetingMediumEUR
08:10(Australia) RBA Jacobs SpeechMediumAUD
09:00(Germany) Ifo ExpectationsLowEUR
09:00(Germany) Ifo Current ConditionsLowEUR
09:00(Germany) Ifo Business ClimateHighEUR
10:30(Germany) 15-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
10:30(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
11:00(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends OrdersMediumGBP
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
14:00(Belgium) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 2-Year FRN AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Canada) 10-Year Bond AuctionLowCAD
17:10(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
18:00(United States) 5-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
18:45(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
19:00(United States) FOMC MinutesHighUSD
Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD bears are taking a pause around 1.0770 in early Wednesday trading in Asia, following a significant daily loss. The prevailing negative sentiment can be attributed to mounting concerns over a potential US default, optimistic expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and anxiety ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve Minutes. Moreover, the Euro's value is being undermined by tensions between the United States and China, as well as geopolitical unease between the West and Russia.
Lack of progress in the negotiations to avert the US debt ceiling expiration, coupled with fears of a potentially "catastrophic" default, have weighed heavily on market sentiment recently. US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, in a Reuters statement, indicated that there would be no agreement on extending the debt ceiling today. However, he did express optimism, reiterating his belief that an agreement would be reached before June 01. Prior to this, reports emerged from Washington revealing that the US Treasury had approached various agencies to inquire about the possibility of delaying payment obligations.
Buy Scenario: - Conversely, a pullback in EUR/USD is unlikely unless the pair falls below the support level of the "Double Bottom" around 1.0760.
If the Euro bears manage to breach the critical support at 1.0760 and invalidate the bullish chart pattern, the pair could be exposed to a decline towards the late March low near 1.0715, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.
Sell Scenario: - EUR/USD meanders with modest gains around 1.0775 as it awaits significant catalysts in early Wednesday trading in Europe. This has resulted in the formation of a bullish chart pattern known as the "Double Bottom," with market focus on a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and the release of the minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting.
The formation of the "Double Bottom" pattern, along with positive developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), reinforces the potential for further recovery in the EUR/USD pair.
However, the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA), along with the 50-HMA and a descending trend line from early May, presents a significant resistance level at 1.0800. Euro buyers will need to overcome this hurdle in order to regain control.
Subsequently, a swift upward move towards the 200-HMA and the mid-May low, located around 1.0835 and 1.0845 respectively, cannot be ruled out. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.0747-R1 1.0807
S2 1.0723-R2 1.0844
S3 1.0687-R3 1.0867

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