Published on Mar 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 24-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
0:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
0:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
0:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
3:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
5:30	(Netherlands) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
6:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
7:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
8:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	EUR
8:00	(Spain) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
8:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
8:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
9:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
9:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
9:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Netherlands) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air	Low	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoM	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
13:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
16:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair is currently experiencing downward pressure, following a retreat from a seven-week high. The market conditions are unstable and unpredictable, adding to the volatility of the exchange rate.

Despite the mixed data, the Euro is showing resilience as the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a relatively more hawkish stance compared to the US Federal Reserve. This has kept Euro buyers optimistic about the currency's prospects, despite the challenges posed by the market.

However, the failure to surpass a crucial technical barrier, combined with concerns over stricter financial market regulations, has increased the bearish sentiment. It remains to be seen whether the Euro will be able to overcome these hurdles and regain its footing in the market.

To gain fresh impetus, market participants will be closely monitoring the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for Germany, Europe, and the US. These indicators are expected to provide valuable insights into the economic health of these regions and could potentially influence the exchange rate.

Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair is expected to make a recovery attempt, with an initial target set at the support-turned-resistance line from Monday, currently located near 1.0885.

However, it is important for buyers to exercise caution unless there is a clear breach of the 1.0935 resistance level. If this level is successfully breached, then the pair may potentially make a move towards retesting the yearly high at approximately 1.1035.

It is important to note that the market is unpredictable, and the direction of the EUR/USD pair may change rapidly. Therefore, traders should remain vigilant and closely monitor market developments, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - the EUR/USD pair experienced its first daily loss in six days, as it was unable to breach the two-month-old horizontal resistance zone at 1.0930-35. The resulting pullback also caused a break in an upward-sloping support line from Monday, allowing intraday sellers to gain traction.

It is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index's (RSI) reversal from the overbought territory has broken short-term support, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also hinting at further bearish momentum. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may experience further downside, even if recent trading saw sellers prodded by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March fall.

However, an upward-sloping support line from March 15 and the mid-month high are currently in place to maintain bearish focus on the 1.0765-60 support zone.

If the pair manages to breach this support zone, it may quickly fall towards a convergence of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, located around 1.0670-65. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -