Daily Analysis For EUR/USD  23-05-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 23-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
01:00(Montenegro) Independence DayNoneEUR
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMILowJPY
07:00(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net BorrowingLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex BanksLowGBP
08:00(Slovakia) Current AccountLowEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:15(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
08:15(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick SpeechLowEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current Account s.aLowEUR
09:30(Slovenia) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
10:00(Italy) Current AccountLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 28-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 2-Year Schatz AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:25(Euro Area) ECB Enria SpeechLowEUR
13:00(United States) Building PermitsMediumUSD
13:00(United States) Building Permits MoMLowUSD
13:30(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoYLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) PPI YoYLowCAD
13:30(Canada) PPI MoMLowCAD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) New Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Services IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) New Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexLowUSD
15:30(Slovenia) Unemployment RateLowEUR
18:00(United States) 2-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
20:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Retail Sales YoYHighNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Retail Sales QoQHighNZD

Today's Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair is exhibiting a volatile movement above the key support level of 1.0800 during the early Tokyo trading session. Despite receiving a combination of conflicting statements regarding interest rate guidance from policymakers at the Federal Reserve (Fed), the prominent currency pair failed to demonstrate a clear direction. Investors are eagerly anticipating the forthcoming in-person discussions between US President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as it is expected to result in significant actions being taken.

Buy Scenario: - EUR/USD buyers are taking a pause near the crucial resistance level after a two-day upward trend, hovering around 1.0815 in early Tuesday's Asian session. This movement prompts the Euro pair to test the upper boundary of a descending trend channel that has been in place for the past 13 days.
However, there are signs of weakening bullish momentum, as indicated by the MACD signals losing strength and the RSI (14) line showing sluggishness. These factors present a challenge for EUR/USD buyers to surpass the aforementioned key resistance barrier around 1.0820 at the current time.
Even if the quote manages to rise above 1.0820, it will encounter a significant horizontal resistance zone that has been established for six weeks, approximately around 1.0830-40. This zone will serve as a major obstacle for the EUR/USD bulls.
It is important to note that if the EUR/USD pair successfully surpasses 1.0840, it will not hesitate to target the round figure of 1.1000 before attempting to reach the monthly high, which currently stands around 1.1095, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if there is a pullback, the pair may find support near the recent swing low of around 1.0760, followed by a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's upside movement from March to April, located near 1.0735-40.
However, sustaining a bearish momentum beyond 1.0740 may prove challenging for EUR/USD sellers, as the lower boundary of the mentioned channel, positioned close to 1.0700 at the present time, is likely to limit the short-term downside potential of the pair.
Overall, EUR/USD buyers seem to be losing their momentum, but the sellers require confirmation from a breach of 1.0760 to regain control. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 1.0795-R1 1.0831
S2 1.0777-R2 1.0849
S3 1.0759-R3 1.0867


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