Published on May 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 23-05-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Montenegro) Independence Day	None	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick Speech	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 28-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:25	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
13:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
13:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) Fed Logan Speech	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
20:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Retail Sales YoY	High	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Retail Sales QoQ	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair is exhibiting a volatile movement above the key support level of 1.0800 during the early Tokyo trading session. Despite receiving a combination of conflicting statements regarding interest rate guidance from policymakers at the Federal Reserve (Fed), the prominent currency pair failed to demonstrate a clear direction. Investors are eagerly anticipating the forthcoming in-person discussions between US President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as it is expected to result in significant actions being taken.

Buy Scenario: - EUR/USD buyers are taking a pause near the crucial resistance level after a two-day upward trend, hovering around 1.0815 in early Tuesday's Asian session. This movement prompts the Euro pair to test the upper boundary of a descending trend channel that has been in place for the past 13 days.

However, there are signs of weakening bullish momentum, as indicated by the MACD signals losing strength and the RSI (14) line showing sluggishness. These factors present a challenge for EUR/USD buyers to surpass the aforementioned key resistance barrier around 1.0820 at the current time.

Even if the quote manages to rise above 1.0820, it will encounter a significant horizontal resistance zone that has been established for six weeks, approximately around 1.0830-40. This zone will serve as a major obstacle for the EUR/USD bulls.

It is important to note that if the EUR/USD pair successfully surpasses 1.0840, it will not hesitate to target the round figure of 1.1000 before attempting to reach the monthly high, which currently stands around 1.1095, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if there is a pullback, the pair may find support near the recent swing low of around 1.0760, followed by a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's upside movement from March to April, located near 1.0735-40.

However, sustaining a bearish momentum beyond 1.0740 may prove challenging for EUR/USD sellers, as the lower boundary of the mentioned channel, positioned close to 1.0700 at the present time, is likely to limit the short-term downside potential of the pair.

Overall, EUR/USD buyers seem to be losing their momentum, but the sellers require confirmation from a breach of 1.0760 to regain control. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -