Published on Mar 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 23-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) SNB Interest Rate Decision	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
11:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
12:00	(Germany) undesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Current Account	Medium	USD
12:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) 10-Year TIPS Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY

Today's Scenario: - On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is continuing its upward trend and is currently hovering close to the 1.0900 mark. The pair has remained strong, largely due to the weakened state of the US Dollar in the broader market. As investors weigh the latest dovish sentiments expressed by the Federal Reserve, they are also closely monitoring the policy decisions of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE). These upcoming policy outcomes have the potential to trigger a fresh surge of volatility across the foreign exchange (FX) board.

Buy Scenario: - In addition, the bullish bias surrounding the EUR/USD pair is further supported by the presence of bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator and a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) line that is not yet overbought.

It is important to note that the 200-day moving average (DMA) level, located around 1.0335, is acting as the last line of defense for the EUR/USD buyers.

On the other hand, the EUR/USD bulls are being lured by a descending resistance line that is 13 months old and is located around 1.0985, followed by the psychological magnet of 1.1000. If the pair manages to break above this resistance level, it could potentially reach the yearly high of 1.1033, followed by the March 2022 top located around 1.1185, thereby attracting more buyers, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The EUR/USD pair has continued to rise on early Thursday, reaching an intraday high near 1.0875, with bullish investors maintaining control for the sixth day in a row. As a result, the major currency pair remains strong and is hovering around its highest level in seven weeks, which was achieved in the previous session.

This bullish trend is further supported by the successful break of a one-year-long horizontal resistance that is now acting as support, located around 1.0805-1.0785.

Furthermore, the sustained rebound of the EUR/USD pair from the 100-day moving average (MA), situated around 1.0605 at present, is also favoring the bulls. Additionally, the pair has rebounded from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its downside movement from February to September 2022, located near 1.0515.Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -