Published on Mar 22, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 22-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
05:30	(Netherlands) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Current Account	Medium	CHF
08:45	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
09:30	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
11:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
11:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
11:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
11:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:05	(Germany) Bundesbank Mauderer Speech	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) New Housing Price Index MoM	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) New Housing Price Index YoY	Medium	CAD
13:45	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
14:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
17:30	(Canada) BoC Summary of Deliberations	Medium	CAD
18:00	(United States) Fed Interest Rate Decision	High	USD
18:00	(United States) FOMC Economic Projections	High	USD
18:00	(United States) Interest Rate Projection - Longer	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) Interest Rate Projection - Current	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr	Medium	USD
18:30	(United States) Fed Press Conference	High	USD
23:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY

Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD is currently in a consolidation phase after experiencing an upsurge in value, reaching its peak since mid-February. The US dollar continues to remain weak as market participants anticipate a less aggressive approach by the Federal Reserve, which is offering some relief to the Euro. As the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, traders have opted to take a wait-and-see approach, preferring to stay on the sidelines and monitor the situation closely.

To summarize, the EUR/USD currency pair is currently consolidating at a high level, as the USD is weak due to speculation of a less hawkish Fed. Traders are currently taking a cautious stance ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting.

Buy Scenario: - If the 1.0800 resistance confluence is broken, there is a strong possibility that the price will aim for the high of around 1.0930 that was reached in January. After that, the next target would be the Year-To-Date (YTD) high which was recorded in February, at approximately 1.1035. In other words, breaking through the 1.0800 resistance level could potentially lead to a significant upward movement in price towards the January and February highs, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The Euro pair has rebounded successfully from the 100-day moving average (DMA) and is currently supported by bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals and a positive Relative Strength Index (RSI) line that is not overbought. This has given buyers some hope for an upward movement in price. However, the area between 1.0800 and 1.0700 is currently limiting the EUR/USD pair's movements. The 1.0800 hurdle is particularly strong as it is also the level of the late January low and February 14th swing high, making it difficult for EUR/USD buyers to push the price upwards.

On the other hand, a break below the support level of 1.0700 could quickly lead to a decline in the price of the EUR/USD pair towards the 100-DMA support level, which is currently at around 1.0595.

If the price continues to fall, the next level of support to watch out for is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is around 1.0530. This level represents a significant downward movement from the late November to early February run-up of the EUR/USD pair. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -