Published on Apr 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 21-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
00:01	(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
05:00	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY	High	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:15	(France) S&P Global Services PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI	Low	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDP	Medium	EUR
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Retail Sales MoM	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Composite PMI	Medium	USD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Services PMI	High	USD
15:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
21:35	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair has recently bounced back from its previous level of 1.0960 after a corrective move. However, its current state is uncertain as investors eagerly await the release of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for the month of April. For the past two trading sessions, the major currency pair has been range-bound, fluctuating between 1.0911 and 1.1000 as the foreign exchange market braces itself for a pre-anxiety move ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

Meanwhile, the S&P500 has experienced three consecutive days of negative settlements due to the sheer volatility inspired by the quarterly result season. Market sentiment was heavily impacted by Tesla's weak earnings on Thursday, which also resulted in poor revenue guidance due to considerations of lowering prices, causing caution among market participants. The impact of the Fed's higher interest rates is becoming increasingly evident in the quarterly earnings reports. According to Refinitiv data, analysts have mostly retained last week's expectations of a near 5% year-on-year fall in quarterly profits for companies in the 500-US stocks basket.

Buy Scenario: - To achieve a bullish session, the EUR/USD currency pair must steer clear of the pivot at $1.0963 and aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1.0992. A breakout before the US session would require positive economic indicators from the euro area and hawkish talk from the European Central Bank.

If the bulls sustain an extended rally, the next target would be the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.1019. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is at $1.1076, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - However, if the pair falls below the pivot, the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.0936 will become relevant. A drop to sub-$1.09 is unlikely unless there is a significant sell-off. The downside will likely be limited to the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.0906. The Third Major Support Level (S3) is at $1.0850. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -