Published on Mar 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 21-03-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
02:30	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:25	(Switzerland) SNB 2022 Annual Report	Low	CHF
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
12:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales MoM	High	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
15:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
17:30	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
20:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
21:00	(New Zealand) Westpac Consumer Confidence	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - Throughout the Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair has remained within a tight range, hovering just above the critical support level of 1.0700. This lack of movement is likely due to investors taking a cautious approach in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision.

Investors are carefully observing the Fed's decision as it may have a significant impact on the global market. As a result, they have chosen to remain on the sidelines, unwilling to take any significant positions until the outcome is revealed.

Overall, the EUR/USD has been displaying a stable performance, albeit within a narrow range. Investors' hesitance to make any significant moves is understandable given the significant implications that the Fed's decision may have on the currency pair.

Buy Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair is struggling to recover, and its path to upside gains seems obstructed by a descending resistance line that has been in place for over a month. To break through this resistance, the Euro would need to surpass the 1.0750 level at the latest.

Should the currency pair succeed in breaking through the resistance line, it will encounter two significant obstacles, namely the monthly high of 1.0760 and the mid-February peak of 1.0805. If the Euro manages to surpass these levels, it could potentially aim for the Year-To-Date (YTD) high of 1.1035.

Although the possibility of a short-term pullback cannot be entirely discounted, the bears are currently far from taking control of the EUR/USD currency pair.

Overall, the Euro's path to recovery remains challenging, with a significant resistance line and multiple hurdles to overcome. However, if it manages to break through these obstacles, the currency pair could potentially see a run-up to refresh its YTD high, still we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - The EUR/USD currency pair is struggling to maintain its hold above the key support level of 1.0700 and is experiencing mild losses as it enters the European session on Tuesday. This pullback is consistent with a retreat in the RSI (14) line and a receding bullish bias of the MACD signals, suggesting further downside.

The bears will need to break through the strong support provided by the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from last Wednesday, which lies around the 1.0660 level. If the EUR/USD price drops below this level, multiple supports may come into play around 1.0540 and 1.0525 before highlighting the monthly low of 1.0516.

If the quote's weakness persists beyond the 1.0516 level, sellers may aim to dominate the market further by targeting January's low, which is around 1.0480. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -