Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 20-04-2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 20-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis
EUR/USD
Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:50(Japan) Foreign Bond InvestmentLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Stock Investment by ForeignersLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Imports YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Exports YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Balance of TradeHighJPY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 1YMediumCNY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 5YMediumCNY
04:35(Japan) 20-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoMLowJPY
05:30(Netherlands) Unemployment RateMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI YoYLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI MoMLowEUR
07:00(Germany) PPI YoYLowEUR
07:00(Germany) PPI MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Business Climate IndicatorLowEUR
07:45(France) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
09:00(Greece) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Spain) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
09:40(Spain) 7-Year Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
10:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
10:00(Euro Area) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(France) 5-Year BTAN AuctionLowEUR
10:00(France) 3-Year BTAN AuctionLowEUR
11:00(France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI MoMLowEUR
12:30(Euro Area) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting AccountsMediumEUR
13:30(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Business ConditionsLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed EmploymentLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed CAPEX IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Prices PaidLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed New OrdersLowUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
15:00(Euro Area) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
15:00(United States) Existing Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) CB Leading Index MoMLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
18:00(United States) 5-Year TIPS AuctionLowUSD
20:00(United States) Fed Bowman SpeechMediumUSD
21:15(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel SpeechLowEUR
Today's Scenario: - In the upcoming Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is likely to experience a significant decline below the immediate support level of 1.0950. This major currency pair is currently facing selling pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded and surpassed the resistance level of 102.00.
Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have continued to decline during the Asian session. Investors are concerned that further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could negatively impact revenue guidance.
According to the Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve (Fed), economic activity in most districts remains stable. However, due to tight credit conditions imposed by US commercial banks to avoid uncertainty in a turbulent environment, loans and advances to businesses and consumers have decreased.
Buy Scenario: - In EUR/USD pair a recovery cannot be confirmed unless there is an upside break of the 21-SMA hurdle, which is close to 1.0965. If EUR/USD buyers manage to cross the one-week-old horizontal resistance area, which is close to the psychological magnet of 1.1000, it will be crucial for fresh bullish momentum.
In the event that EUR/USD buyers remain in control beyond 1.1000, the focus will shift to the latest peak around 1.1075., till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.
Sell Scenario: - During the early hours of Thursday's Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is hovering around the 1.0950 mark. Despite a corrective bounce off the 100-bar SMA earlier, the Euro pair is now fading and retreating from the 21-SMA.
The failure to break through the 21-SMA this week, along with the steady RSI (14) line and sluggish MACD signals, which are mostly bearish, are keeping sellers optimistic.
While the 100-SMA support of 1.0920 is not a key factor in the pair's southward movement, an upward-sloping support line from late March, located close to 1.0910, presents a significant challenge for bears to overcome before taking control.
Following that, a drop towards the April 10 swing low of approximately 1.0835 cannot be ruled out. However, the monthly low of 1.0788 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair's March-April upside, near 1.0730, may pose a challenge for further downside momentum. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 1.0920-R1 1.0987
S2 1.0885-R2 1.1019
S3 1.0853-R3 1.1054

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