Published on Apr 18, 2023

Daily Analysis For EUR/USD 18-04-2023

EUR/USD Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for EUR/USD

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Tuesday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
03:00	(China) Industrial Capacity Utilization	Low	CNY
03:00	(China) Retail Sales YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Industrial Production YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
03:00	(China) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	CNY
03:00	(China) Unemployment Rate	High	CNY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Employment Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change	Low	GBP
09:00	(Italy) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
16:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - EUR/USD has reached a new intraday high of approximately 1.0940 in the early hours of Tuesday morning in Europe, as it recuperates from its lowest levels in a week. This marks the first daily gains for the Euro pair in three days.

The recent recovery in the Euro pair may be attributed to the decline of the US Dollar, which is following the trend of the US Treasury bond yields. Nevertheless, the bulls of EUR/USD may face resistance due to the consolidation phase before the announcement of today's crucial Eurozone and German ZEW sentiment figures for April.

Buy Scenario: - During Tuesday in EUR/USD if it breaks above the psychological resistance of 1.1000, it will push towards a new annual high at 1.1068, followed by the round-level resistance at 1.1100, till we do not advise to buy EUR/USD currency pair.

Sell Scenario: - EUR/USD pair experienced a sharp decline after failing to maintain its position above the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension (which is based on the April 04 high at 1.0973 to the April 10 low at 1.0837) at 1.1057. The major currency pair has fallen below the upward-sloping trendline drawn from the March 24 low at 1.0714.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at 1.0962 is creating an obstacle for the Euro bulls.

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, indicating further weakness ahead.

If the asset decisively breaks below the April 12 low at 1.0915, it will pull towards the April 10 low at 1.0837 and April 03 low at 1.0788. Till then we do not advise selling EUR/USD.

Support and Resistance Level: -